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supposed to include commercial farms; and (2) the total area under large-scale commercial farms
reported in the Commercial Production Series. A comparison of columns G and I indicates that
column I cannot be inclusive within G as the area under commercial farms exceeds the MAFF data
in certain years. One logical explanation is that the MAFF land reported is only arable land, not the
total land area of the holding. Column H shows the percentage of arable land area on MAFF farms
relative to available land outside natural resource reserves, while Column I compares the total land
area under commercial farms in each province with the same.
Outside of the natural resource reserves, an abundant supply of land would seem to be
available for future expansion of crop and livestock production. Of the 47,244,800 hectares not
included in state forests, national parks, GMAs, or lakes, only 2.7 percent is occupied by farming
units based on the MAFF data and 3.2 percent based on the commercial farm series. Assuming, as
in chapter 1, that about 13 percent of the nation's land area is potentially arable, then around
6,141,800 hectares of land would be available for crop cultivation. Assuming further that the MAFF
data represent arable farmland, then the data suggest that only about 21.0 percent of the arable land
base is currently under crop cultivation, leaving ample scope for agricultural expansion. Furthermore,
as reported in chapters 1 and 2, a high percentage of land under commercial farms is underutilized,
suggesting that even these figures are overestimates of area under cultivation. Certain provinces (e.g.,
the more-remote Northern, Western, and North-Western) experience lower rates of occupation than
others. Unfortunately, data are not available on areas of urban land, making it difficult to interpret
the data for Lusaka and Copperbelt.
B. Crop land utilization
As described in greater detail in chapter 8, the most recent data on area cultivated for the
commercial farm sector are disaggregated into four provinces—Central, Lusaka, Southern, and
Copperbelt, the latter of which includes data for the remaining provinces. The data series for the
noncommercial sector, which in principle include all farms in the agricultural sector other than
commercial farms, were last published in 1985. The MAFF agricultural data series based on area
forecasts theoretically include all farms and, while comprising a relatively complete time series back
to 1976, include data mainly on crop area, production, and yields.
Provincial level data on total farming area and cultivated land are provided in table 3.2 for
commercial farms based on the commercial sector data series and all farms (noncommercial and
commercial) based on the MAFF series. Area cultivated in the commercial farm sector represents on
average only 10.6 percent of total farming area, a figure consistent with the high rates of
underutilization reported in a recent World Bank study (MAFF/WB 1993) (see chapter 1). Utilization
ranges from a low of 3.8 percent in Southern province to a high of 19.2 percent in Copperbelt
province—estimates that on the surface would appear exactly opposite the regional findings reached
by the MAFF/WB report and summarized in table 1.5.