2.2 - Scenario 2: Strength of downstream structures in the fruit and vegetables
supply chains
Scenario 2 accords considerable weight to the downstream structures of the supply chains (20% of the
index on industrial fruit and vegetable processing companies and 40% on fruit and vegetable wholesale
companies and food purchasing centres).
In this scenario, the average vulnerability of the 30 regions is lower, falling from 2.2 to 1.8 (on a scale
from 1 to 10). This tends to indicate an increase in the competitiveness of the regions from their
downstream structures.
The results of the previous ranking change little: the same regions appear at the top and bottom of the
table, albeit in a slightly different order. Thus, in the 10 most vulnerable regions as identified in this
scenario (S2), only Calabria (8th to 4th), Castilla (9th to 3rd) and Toscana (12th to 10th) appear to be
weakened by downstream insufficiency. Inversely, 2 relatively non-vulnerable regions (ranked in the last
10 positions) benefit from a consistent downstream and improve their ranking: Pays de la Loire (14th in
S1 to 23rd in S2) and Puglia (17th to 28th).
2.3 - Scenario 3: Strength of the economic environment
Scenario 3 accords preponderance to the regions’ income level (30%) and the production (25%) and
transformation (25%) sectors.
The scores range from 1.6 to 10, around a higher average: 2.8. The regions’ sensitivity to the criterion of
macro-economic wealth (income) and R&D is therefore globally significant.
The 10 regions ranked as being the most vulnerable remains unchanged, but for a few permutations.
Campania improves its position (from 16th to 22nd compared to S2). Les Pays de la Loire falls from 23rd to
18th position. The rest of the list of non-vulnerable regions remains identical, but for a few permutations.
2.4 - Scenario 4: Balance of strengths
This simulation accords equal weight to the actors in production, transformation and distribution as well
as to the macro-economic parameters (25% each).
The scores range from 1.27 to 10, with an average of 2.15, a fall which confirms the importance of the
economic environment to the level of vulnerability of the fruit and vegetables supply chains.
The positions in this ranking are very similar to those seen in scenario 2, which gave a high weighting to
the downstream structures of the supply chains (transformation and distribution).
According to this synthetic indicator, the 3 Portuguese regions, 3 Greek regions out of 4, 6 Italian regions
our of 11, 2 Spanish regions out of 6 and 1 French region out of 6 would be vulnerable to an
intensification of competition in the fruit and vegetables sector.
3. - Discussion of the results
In general terms, the estimation of a synthetic regional vulnerability index provides results validated by
observations in the field and underlines the impact of the economic environment on the performances of
the fruit and vegetable supply chains. Nevertheless, it is necessary to highlight a number of essential
points which should be kept in mind to ensure a correct interpretation of the regional rankings carried out.
First of all, the general ranking produced is the result of a composite index which takes into account not
only the actors in the fruit and vegetable supply chains but also sector-based (the supply chain) and
general (the economic situation and regional infrastructures) environmental factors.
13