Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?



Table 4: Russia: Johansen cointegration test; with linear deterministic trend and lag interval (in
first differences) 1 to 2

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Tests

Hypothesized
No. of CE’s

Eigen-value

Trace

Statistic

5 Percent

Critical Value

1 percent

Critical Value

None

0.524723

122.95190

87.31

96.58

At most 1

0.371151

62.69944

62.99

70.05

At most 2

0.139696

25.12649

42.44

48.45

At most 3

0.100898

12.93849

25.32

30.45

At most 4

0.051976

4.32339

12.25

16.26

Hypothesized
No. of CE’s

Eigen-value

Max-Eigen
Statistic

5 Percent

Critical Value

1 percent
Critical Value

None

0.524723

60.25245

37.52

42.36

At most 1

0.371151

37.57296

31.46

36.65

At most 2

0.139696

12.18800

25.54

30.34

At most 3

0.100898

8.61509

18.96

23.65

At most 4

0.051976

4.32339

12.25

16.26

In Tables 5 and 6, the estimated cointegrating equations for the logarithm of real exchange
rate for Poland and Russia are presented. The t-statistics are in parentheses. Specification 1 in
each table is the initial specification. In order to correct for possible serial correlation and
simultaneity bias the equations are re-specified with DOLS. Specification 2 is the final result. To
confirm that the vector of the estimated coefficients is a cointegrating vector, ADF and Phillips-
Perron unit root tests are conducted on the residual series. The relevant critical values are
obtained from Philips and Ouliaris (1990, Table IIc). The tests strongly reject the null hypothesis

23



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