Improving Business Cycle Forecasts’ Accuracy - What Can We Learn from Past Errors?

Improving Business Cycle Forecasts’ Accuracy

15

Table 4

Test for Information Efficiency Based on a Ranked Sign Test¹1991-2004

Indicator		RWI-7	RWI-4	RWI-3	GD-6	GD-4	GD-2
	GDP PC		20,5**		4***	15,5 20	21**
ifo business expectations (IFOE)	GC IEQ IS	81*
	EX IM
ifo business climate (IFOC)	GDP PC GC IEQ IS EX IM	89**	20**		17,5**	25,5* 21,5*	24,5*
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)	GDP PC GC IEQ IS EX IM	90**	26*			23,5*	23,5* 23* 13**
	GDP PC	15,5**			0***	25* 21**	11,5**
OECD leading indicator (OECD)	GC IEQ IS
	EX IM	24*	18**	13,5**	21**
New orders manufacturing sector (NOMT)	GDP PC GC IEQ IS EX IM		87**			18,5**
New foreign orders manufacturing sector (NOMF)	GDP PC GC IEQ IS EX IM	17**	82*
New orders construction sector (NOC)	GDP PC GC IEQ IS EX IM	21**	94***		85**

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