Improving Business Cycle Forecasts’ Accuracy - What Can We Learn from Past Errors?

Indicator

RWI-7

RWI-4

RWI-3

GD-6

GD-4

GD-2

GDP

PC

83*

GC

855**

Short term interest rate

(SR)                   _I^I_S^EQ

17,5**

^,

9***

EX

25*

IM

82*

GDP

20**

PC

GC

83,5*

81,5*

Long term interest rate

(LR)                   _I^I_S^EQ

85**

79*

81,5*

EX

11,5**

IM

26*

GDP

16,5**

15,5**

PC

80,5*

GC

Interest rate spread

In_(Yte_Cre₎st rate spread         _IISEQ

22*

EX

25,5*

IM

GDP

24,5*

24,5*

PC

GC

80,5*

Short term interest rate-1
(SR-1)                 _I^I_S^EQ

21,5*

24*

EX

IM

14**

23*

GDP

24,5*

PC

GC

795*

Long term interest rate-1
(LR-1)                 _I^I_S^EQ

79*

^,

EX

95***

IM

22*

GDP

10,5***

PC

GC

Interest rate spread-1

In_(Yte_Cre_-s₁t₎rate spread-1       _IISEQ

EX

IM

81,5*

GDP

26*

14,5**

24*

PC

89**

GC

81*

Real short term

interest rate (RSR)       _I^I_S^EQ

89**

EX

22*

23*

IM

95***