Improving Business Cycle Forecasts’ Accuracy - What Can We Learn from Past Errors?



16


Roland Dohrn

Table 4 cont.

Test for Information Efficiency Based on a Ranked Sign Test1
1991-2004

Indicator

RWI-7

RWI-4

RWI-3

GD-6

GD-4

GD-2

GDP

PC

83*

GC

855**

Short term interest rate

(SR)                   IISEQ

17,5**

,

9***

EX

25*

IM

82*

GDP

20**

PC

GC

83,5*

81,5*

Long term interest rate

(LR)                   IISEQ

85**

79*

81,5*

EX

11,5**

IM

26*

GDP

16,5**

15,5**

PC

80,5*

GC

Interest rate spread

In(YteCre)st rate spread         IISEQ

22*

EX

25,5*

IM

GDP

24,5*

24,5*

PC

GC

80,5*

Short term interest rate-1
(SR-1)                 IISEQ

21,5*

24*

EX

IM

14**

23*

GDP

24,5*

PC

GC

795*

Long term interest rate-1
(LR-1)                 IISEQ

79*

,

EX

95***

IM

22*

GDP

10,5***

PC

GC

Interest rate spread-1

In(YteCre-s1t)rate spread-1       IISEQ

EX

IM

81,5*

GDP

26*

14,5**

24*

PC

89**

GC

81*

Real short term

interest rate (RSR)       IISEQ

89**

EX

22*

23*

IM

95***



More intriguing information

1. Name Strategy: Its Existence and Implications
2. The name is absent
3. CONSIDERATIONS CONCERNING THE ROLE OF ACCOUNTING AS INFORMATIONAL SYSTEM AND ASSISTANCE OF DECISION
4. The Impact of Financial Openness on Economic Integration: Evidence from the Europe and the Cis
5. Institutions, Social Norms, and Bargaining Power: An Analysis of Individual Leisure Time in Couple Households
6. Technological progress, organizational change and the size of the Human Resources Department
7. The name is absent
8. Financial Development and Sectoral Output Growth in 19th Century Germany
9. Poverty transition through targeted programme: the case of Bangladesh Poultry Model
10. An Efficient Secure Multimodal Biometric Fusion Using Palmprint and Face Image