The name is absent



Table 19

CGE estimated net GDP effect of preferential and unilateral tariff liberalization and NTB

liberalization

(billions of US dollars, equivalent variation

measure)

Reversion of preferentials

Reversion of nontariff barrier rates

Reversion to 1990 tariffs

Terms of

Overall

Terms of

Overall

Terms of

Overall

Country/region       Efficiency

trade

effect

Efficiency

trade

effect

Efficiency

trade

effect

Australia

-0.2

0.2

0.0

-3.1

-0.2

-3.3

-1.9

0.2

-1.7

Brazil

0.1

0.4

0.5

-6.3

0.4

-6.0

-4.3

1.4

-3.0

Canada

-1.8

-1.3

-3.1

-4.5

-4.1

-8.6

-2.9

-0.1

-3.0

China

0.3

1.8

2.1

-14.5

-0.2

-14.7

-38.2

28.3

-9.9

EU-15

1.6

4.7

6.3

-84.0

1.1

-82.9

-29.2

1.2

-28.0

Hong Kong

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.3

-1.6

-1.9

-0.0

-3.2

-3.3

India

0.1

0.3

0.3

-4.7

1.2

-3.5

-13.9

10.2

-3.6

Indonesia

0.0

0.1

0.1

-1.7

-0.6

-2.3

-1.5

0.4

-1.2

Japan

0.3

2.3

2.6

-16.4

1.9

-14.5

-2.0

-1.9

-3.9

Korea

0.1

0.8

0.9

-6.5

-0.0

-6.5

-3.1

1.4

-1.7

Malaysia

0.0

0.2

0.2

-7.7

-5.1

-12.8

-0.6

-3.9

-4.5

Mexico

-3.5

-1.5

-5.0

-14.0

0.6

-13.4

-8.1

0.9

-7.1

Philippines

0.0

0.1

0.1

-4.9

0.3

-4.6

-1.0

0.4

-0.7

Singapore

-0.0

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-1.8

-2.2

-0.2

-3.9

-4.1

Taiwan

0.0

0.4

0.4

-17.7

-0.4

-18.1

-0.9

-1.8

-2.7

Thailand

0.0

0.1

0.2

-0.7

-1.5

-2.2

-5.1

0.9

-4.2

Venezuela

0.0

0.0

0.1

-0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

United States

-1.8

-10.9

-12.7

-28.9

24.4

-4.5

-3.5

-5.0

-8.5

Rest of world

0.7

2.4

3.1

-2.3

-14.1

-16.4

-4.8

-26.0

-30.8

Total

-4.2

-218.9

-122.3

Notes: These results are interpreted in the same way as table 18. The model predicts big terms of trade swings for the larger economies in the NTB
simulations, but only for the United States are the favorable swings large enough to roughly balance the allocative efficiency losses. The reversion of
preferentials scenario entails elimination of the US trade agreements with Australia, Canada, Mexico, and Singapore.

Source: Gilbert (2009) calculations using GTAP7 database.

35



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