recent growth in HE has been of a different kind - not full-time undergraduate study -
then many of the economic arguments for HE participation, based on the traditional
first-degree model, are not applicable. Expansion of HE has expanded the system in
such a way that it has changed, inevitably, and we no longer have much solid
evidence on the consequences for individuals or society.
Table 1 - Number of home students, UK, 1994/95-2004/05
|
1994/95 |
1999/00 |
2004/05 | |
|
All undergraduates |
451840 |
525140 |
673775 |
|
Full-time first degree |
273586 |
281780 |
320865 |
|
Part-time first degree |
49425 |
31400 |
58285 |
Source: HESA
The ethnic background of students is one area of concern for widening participation,
and this paper has already rehearsed some of the difficulties in deciding whether
ethnic minority groups are under-represented in HE. Table 2 shows that there has long
been a high proportion of students whose ethnic origin is unknown. This proportion
has declined from 20% to just under 10% over a decade. However, this still leaves
analysts with at least four major problems. First, the decrease in missing data has been
disproportionately among the traditional full-time undergraduate body (now only 3%
missing), whereas the increase in actual numbers of students is among part-time
students and others (still 13% missing). Second, the decrease in missing data itself
makes it nearly impossible for analysts to decide whether apparent changes over time
are due to widening participation or merely due to changes in form-filling. Third, the
ethnic classifications used by HESA have changed over time, and these changes,
including the introduction of mixed ethnic categories, mean that the classifications
from different years do not nest and can not be converted into each other. So, it is not
actually possible to track changes in ethnic participation over time. Fourth, the
number of cases in each of the rapidly growing number of ethnic categories is
generally small and shrinking as the categories increase. As one may imagine, the
number of students self-reported as being of mixed Chinese and Black other origin,
11