The analysis required to produce patterns of participation in HE by social groups is
relatively simple once the preceding analytic decisions and necessary compromises
have been made. For example, the proportion of the social group under consideration
(e.g. an ethnic minority) can be compared in HE and in the relevant population by
dividing the former by the latter. A result of one (1) shows proportionate
participation, and a figure less than one (<1) shows under-representation. The
difficulties, possibilities, and consequences of this kind of analysis are illustrated in
the next section of the paper using official figures, which represent the best evidence
we have. There is not some other, far superior, dataset on which the WP agenda is
based. In the light of the foregoing, the figures for the HE participation of particular
social groups are presented to help try and decide which students are ‘missing’, and so
where the efforts of WP activities might be directed. Some of the figures are new,
some come from a HEFCE-funded review of evidence (Gorard et al. 2006), and some
from other work, such as that for the Rees Reviews of student hardship in Wales
(Gorard and Taylor 2001, Taylor and Gorard 2005).
Patterns of participation
There has been a considerable increase in the number of home undergraduate students
of all ages in the UK over the past decade, with an overall growth of around 50%
(Table 1). Much of this increase has been in study for qualifications below degree
level (according to HESA), including foundation degrees, diplomas, and professional
certificates. This distinction is important, because it shows that increasing
participation, and the widening of opportunities that accompanies it, has been
disproportionately concerned with many of these relatively recent kinds of
opportunities. However, the standard economic analyses presenting arguments for
expanding and participating in higher education are usually based on more traditional
undergraduate degree courses. The arguments are based on the notion of HE as an
investment in human capital, both by the individual participant whose lifetime
earnings will rise, and by a society whose workforce will be more skilled and
competitive in a global economy. The econometric calculations presented as evidence
that such investment pays off are necessarily based on participation some time in the
past - sufficiently so for the investment to have had a chance to pay off. So, if the
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