Temporary Work in Turbulent Times: The Swedish Experience

23

categories. We have used data from the labour force surveys and performed a simple shift-share
analysis based on 14 demographic categories (men, women and seven age groups). It turns out
that demographic shifts have worked against a rise in temporary work. Workers on fixed-term
contracts accounted for 10.1 percent of the total number of employees in 1990 and 15.2 percent
in 2000. However, if the demographic composition of 2000 were applied to the group-specific
temporary work shares of 1990, the implied total share of temporary work would be only 8.5
percent. Demographic groups with relatively low rates of temporary work in 1990 exhibited
relatively high growth rates during the decade.

It is conceivable but unlikely that the rise in temporary work is driven by changes in worker
preferences regarding “flexibility” and job security. The available evidence suggests that there is
a very strong preference for job security in Sweden. For example, responses from a
representative sample of Swedish employees in the International Social Survey Programme
ranked job security as the most important of the factors listed (Edlund and Svallfors, 1997).
Other evidence, such as the study by Furâker and Berglund (2001), suggest that having a fixed-
term contract has a highly significant negative effect on the perception that “My job is secure”.
Berlin (1995, 1997) reports on investigations asking representative samples of the labour force
on the preferred contractual form. Over 95 percent of the respondents expressed preference for
open-ended contracts. Aronsson and Goransson (1999) present even more striking results from
another questionnaire. They find that of workers on open-ended contracts who were not working
in their preferred occupation, only 25 percent would prefer a fixed-term contract in their desired
occupation. Of those who had a fixed-term contract in their desired occupation, 58 percent would
be willing to abandon their preferred occupation if they could obtain another job with a open-
ended contract.

A final possibility involving the supply side can be envisaged. It is plausible that there will
be a downward adjustment of reservation wages, in broad terms, as labor market conditions

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