36
Table 1: The role of foreign unemployment
Dep.var.: level of unemployment rate |
(2) OLS |
(3) IV |
(4) OLS |
(5) IV |
(6) OLS |
(7) IV |
(8) OLS |
(9) IV |
(10) |
(11) | |
(1) OLS | |||||||||||
u* |
0.072a |
0.067b |
0.083a |
0.088a |
0.071a |
0.077a |
0.139a |
0.138a |
0.119a |
0.133a | |
(0.028) |
(0.030) |
(0.029) |
(0.032) |
(0.025) |
(0.028) |
(0.032) |
(0.039) |
(0.026) |
(0.030) | ||
u* × k* /k |
0.049b |
0.162a |
0.056b |
0.145 | |||||||
(0.023) |
(0.094) |
(0.023) |
(0.120) | ||||||||
k*/k |
-1.010a |
-1.622a |
-0.986a |
-1.536b | |||||||
(0.248) |
(0.484) |
(0.241) |
(0.651) | ||||||||
b |
0.091a |
0.085a |
0.098a |
0.092a |
0.104a |
0.075a |
0.100a |
0.085a |
0.102a | ||
(0.019) |
(0.020) |
(0.019) |
(0.018) |
(0.017) |
(0.020) |
(0.022) |
(0.017) |
(0.019) | |||
PMR |
0.745a |
0.878a |
0.948a |
0.774a |
0.868a |
0.917a |
0.927a |
0.789a |
0.880a | ||
(0.198) |
(0.212) |
(0.203) |
(0.187) |
(0.175) |
(0.214) |
(0.214) |
(0.183) |
(0.170) | |||
High corporatism |
-1.739a |
-1.615a |
-1.827a |
-1.581a |
-1.810a |
-1.616a |
-1.712a |
-1.597a |
-1.693a | ||
(0.412) |
(0.420) |
(0.394) |
(0.367) |
(0.353) |
(0.407) |
(0.387) |
(0.357) |
(0.379) | |||
Union density |
-0.001 |
-0.004 |
-0.005 |
-0.013 |
0.004 | ||||||
(0.023) |
(0.023) |
(0.022) |
(0.026) |
(0.028) | |||||||
EPL |
-0.193 |
-0.419 |
-0.314 |
-0.506 |
-0.180 | ||||||
(0.340) |
(0.367) |
(0.351) |
(0.375) |
(0.425) | |||||||
gap |
-0.620a |
-0.646a |
-0.632a |
-0.621a |
-0.611a |
-0.621a |
-0.609a |
-0.624a |
-0.615a |
-0.620a |
-0.618a |
(0.044) |
(0.046) |
(0.044) |
(0.044) |
(0.039) |
(0.040) |
(0.035) |
(0.043) |
(0.039) |
(0.038) |
(0.034) | |
* |
0.024 |
0.067 |
0.020 |
0.060 |
0.148 |
0.423a |
0.151 |
0.387 | |||
(0.075) |
(0.070) |
(0.072) |
(0.067) |
(0.100) |
(0.218) |
(0.100) |
(0.285) | ||||
2nd stage statistics | |||||||||||
RMSE |
1.134 |
1.234 |
1.139 |
1.129 |
1.010 |
1.168 |
1.061 |
1.106 |
0.998 |
1.145 |
1.062 |
adj. R2 |
0.930 |
0.917 |
0.919 |
0.931 |
0.935 |
0.926 |
0.929 |
0.934 |
0.937 |
0.929 |
0.929 |
F |
146.7 |
125.2 |
147.4 |
155.4 |
134.2 |
139.1 | |||||
1st stage statistics (p-values) | |||||||||||
partial R2(u*) |
0.757 |
0.752 |
0.777 |
0.6801 |
0.7561 | ||||||
partial R2 (u* × k* /k) |
0.0636 |
0.0239 | |||||||||
χ2-overidentification |
0.889 |
0.792 |
0.220 |
0.356 |
0.437 | ||||||
χ2-endogeneity |
0.727 |
0.947 |
0.833 |
0.432 |
0.542 | ||||||
Robust standard errors in parentheses,ap < |
0.01,b p |
< 0.05,c p |
< 0.1. : |
Number of observations: 397 |
in OLS and 374 in |
IV regressions. All |
regressions contain a full set of country fixed-effects, year dummies, and an array of orthogonal shocks (TFP, terms of trade, real interest rate,
and labor demand shocks) as additional controls for business cycle comovements. Trade-weighted averages for foreign variables (denoted by
asterisks) are computed using α1 = α2 = 1, and δ = 1. In IV regressions, the foreign unemployment rate u* is instrumented by b*-1,PMR*-1
and gap*-1. The χ2-endogeneity test tests the null that u* is exogenous (and rejects in all presented IV models). Overidentification is tested
for using the Wooldridge robust Score test (invalidity of instruments or model misspecification is rejected in all presented IV models).
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