Unemployment in an Interdependent World



50


Table A4: Robustness Checks: Alternative construction of weighting matrix


Normalization over all countries,
by ∑
i ωi

Normalization over all,
by max
i ωi
δ = 1.00, αi = 1.00

Normalization over 20

OECD countries, by  i ωi

δ = 1.00, αi = 1.00

δ= 0.75, αi = 1.00

δ= 1.50, αi = 1.00

δ = 1.00, αi = 0.00

(1)

IV

(2)

OLS

(3)

IV

(4)

OLS

(5)

IV

(6)

OLS

(7)

IV

(8)

OLS

(9)

IV

(10)
OLS

u*

0.096b

0.065a

0.582a

0.011b

0.026b

(0.042)

(0.021)

(0.178)

(0.005)

(0.011)

b*

0.011b

0.006a

0.052a

0.001b

0.003b

(0.005)

(0.002)

(0.019)

(0.000)

(0.001)

b

0.098a

0.085a

0.098a

0.087a

0.098a

0.089a

0.101a

0.088a

0.100a

0.087a

(0.019)

(0.020)

(0.019)

(0.019)

(0.018)

(0.019)

(0.019)

(0.019)

(0.019)

(0.020)

PMR

0.939a

0.864a

0.837a

0.799a

0.774a

0.917a

0.839a

0.910a

0.844a

(0.206)

(0.211)

(0.204)

(0.190)

(0.199)

(0.200)

(0.208)

(0.201)

(0.210)

Union density

-0.002

-0.003

-0.007

-0.006

0.001

-0.002

-0.007

-0.007

-0.005

-0.005

(0.022)

(0.023)

(0.022)

(0.023)

(0.021)

(0.023)

(0.022)

(0.023)

(0.022)

(0.023)

High corporatism

-1.860a

-1.635a

-1.800a

-1.608a

-1.774a

-1.594a

-1.833a

-1.619a

-1.849a

-1.638a

(0.394)

(0.420)

(0.395)

(0.421)

(0.381)

(0.411)

(0.392)

(0.419)

(0.393)

(0.419)

EPL

-0.271

-0.392

-0.349

-0.431

-0.283

-0.374

-0.282

-0.387

-0.257

-0.369

(0.349)

(0.367)

(0.350)

(0.373)

(0.330)

(0.355)

(0.353)

(0.372)

(0.352)

(0.369)

gap

-0.608a

-0.620a

-0.614a

-0.624a

-0.610a

-0.614a

-0.611a

-0.622a

-0.611a

-0.622a

(0.039)

(0.044)

(0.039)

(0.044)

(0.038)

(0.044)

(0.039)

(0.044)

(0.039)

(0.044)

*
gap*

0.028

-0.070

0.063

-0.004

0.924a

0.596b

0.015

0.004

0.007

0.000

(0.096)

(0.097)

(0.045)

(0.045)

(0.298)

(0.269)

(0.011)

(0.011)

(0.008)

(0.008)

2nd stage statistics

RMSE

1.011

1.130

1.008

1.130

1.000

1.116

1.012

1.132

1.013

1.132

adj. R2

0.935

0.931

0.936

0.931

0.937

0.933

0.935

0.931

0.935

0.930

F

145.7

147.2

161.3

144.1

143.7

1st stage statistics (p-values)

partial R2

0.762

0.741

0.714

0.759

0.766

χ2 -overidentification

0.667

0.843

0.0153

0.825

0.687

χ2 -endogeneity

0.927

0.976

0.155

0.997

0.965


Robust standard errors in parentheses,ap < 0.01,bp < 0.05,cp < 0.1. Number of observations: 397 in OLS and 374 in IV regressions. All regressions
contain a full set of country fixed-effects, year dummies, and an array of orthogonal shocks (TFP, terms of trade, real interest rate, and labor demand
shocks) as additional controls for business cycle comovements. Trade-weighted averages for foreign variables are denoted by asterisks. In IV regressions,
the foreign unemployment rate u
* is instrumented by b*-1, PMR*-1 and gap*-1. The χ2-endogeneity test tests the null that u* is exogenous (and rejects
in all presented IV models). Overidentification is tested for using the Wooldridge robust Score test (invalidity of instruments or model misspecification
is rejected in all presented IV models).




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