An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy.



Shocks of the Estimated DSGE Model

Forecast
horizon

Observable
variables

Productivity

Government
spending

Monetary
policy

Price

Mark-up

Risk
premium

t=1

Inflation

23.3

28.4

42.3

5.8

0.3

Output

14.9

50.0

11.6

22.9

0.5

Interest rate

29.6

37.2

25.9

7.3

0.0

Investment

6.3

9.3

0.3

2.3

81.8

t=4

Inflation

23.1

27.8

40.5

5.8

2.8

Output

26.1

28.6

6.2

26.0

13.0

Interest rate

28.6

39.2

13.6

6.8

11.8

Investment

6.5

10.8

0.1

2.4

80.3

t=10

Inflation

23.1

27.8

40.4

5.8

2.9

Output

24.5

24.4

5.1

23.3

22.6

Interest rate

24.9

34.2

11.7

5.9

23.2

Investment

6.2

11.2

0.1

2.3

80.1

t=100

Inflation

23.1

27.8

40.4

5.78

2.9

Output

21.5

22.3

4.3

19.9

32.0

Interest rate

24.8

34.0

11.6

5.9

23.7

Investment

6.2

11.2

0.1

2.3

80.2

Table 6: Forecast Error Variance Decomposition - NK Model (in Percent)

Shocks of the Estimated DSGE Model

Forecast
horizon

Observable
variables

Productivity

Government
spending

Monetary
policy

Price

Mark-up

Risk
premium

t=1

Inflation

4.2

2.5

85.8

2.5

4.9

Output

30.8

1.1

2.4

54.7

11.0

Interest rate

28.1

17.1

0.1

16.7

38.0

Investment

13.6

11.7

0.1

0.6

74.0

t=4

Inflation

4.7

2.7

85.3

2.7

4.6

Output

34.9

0.7

1.3

47.4

15.8

Interest rate

19.1

13.1

0.2

12.1

55.5

Investment

11.4

11.7

0.0

0.5

76.4

t=10

Inflation

4.7

2.7

85.3

2.7

4.6

Output

33.2

0.7

1.1

41.5

23.4

Interest rate

14.5

10.2

0.2

9.6

65.5

Investment

9.6

11.8

0.0

0.4

78.1

t=100

Inflation

4.7

2.7

85.3

2.7

4.6

Output

30.0

1.0

1.1

36.8

31.0

Interest rate

13.8

9.8

0.2

9.5

66.7

Investment

9.4

11.8

0.0

0.4

78.4

Table 7: Forecast Error Variance Decomposition - NK Model with FA (in
Percent)

45



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