Nomination Contests: Theory and Empirical Evidence
from Professional Soccer*
Jeanine Miklos-Thal^ Hannes Ullrich
Abstract
This paper develops a theory of contests based on perceived abilities, and pro-
vides evidence for the predictions of this theory using panel data from professional
soccer. We examine how soccer players perform in club matches during the (in-
formal) nomination contests for national teams prior to an important international
Cup, the Euro 2008. Our differences-in-differences analysis uses players from non-
qualified nations who play in the same league as a control group. We find a large
positive effect of nomination contest participation on several output measures for
players with intermediate chances of being nominated, as proxied by past national
team participations. For players with no prior national team experience there is no
significant effect. We also find support for the theory that players whose nomination
is close to certain reduce their effort in order to avoid injuries or exhaustion prior
to the Cup. Finally, any positive reaction is strongest for young players.
* We are grateful to Jen Brown, Florian Ederer, Ulrich Kaiser, Michael Raith, Thomas R0nde, Minjae
Song, and seminar audiences at MIT, the University of Mannheim, and the Simon Graduate School
of Business for very helpful and constructive comments. Lukas Kornher provided excellent research
assistance. Financial support by the RNIC network is gratefully acknowledged.
tWilliam E. Simon Graduate School of Business, University of Rochester, (as of July 1, 2009) and
ZEW Mannheim, [email protected]
* University of Zürich and ZEW Mannheim, [email protected].