How do investors' expectations drive asset prices?



Theorem 1 Assume that the information process It is governed by the sto-
chastic differential equation

I — I0 + ItIβσ1sdWt ,   0 tT,

J0

where the volatility process σ1t is given by

σt — σ10 + [ b(s,Is1s) ds + ∕* σy (s,Ia1a) dW^ ,   0 t T,

J0                 J0

with deterministic smooth functions b and σv. Then the forward price Ft of
the asset admits the following representation under the probability measure
P

Γτ                     Γτ

Ft — it


-    λ<1 >(s,Iβ,σf)Z^ds -    λ^s,Isσ1))Z^ds

Jt                          Jt

rτ            rτ

- Z^dW1s - Z^dWsv,

Jt               Jt

0 tT,

with

z — Z Zff ) ( σ(t°ιti) ) vti), 0tt

and

yu(t,x) — (uxfft,x"),ux2(t,x))r,

where u : [0,T] × R2 R is the solution of the partial differential equation

0 — ut(t,x1,x2) - ʌɑ) (t,xι,x2) X1X2¾ 1(t,xι,x2)       (10)

-A(2( (t,x1,x2) σy (t,xi,x2) ux2(t,xi,x2)

+ 2 (x?x2 ux±x±(t,x1,x2 ) + v (t,x1,x2 ))2

ux2x2(t,x1,x2 ɔ

+b(t,xι,x2) uxffffx1,x2)

u(T,xι,x2 ) — x1

for 0 t ≤ T, with indices on the function u indicating partial derivatives.
Moreover Ft is given by

Ftu(t,It1t ) ,   0 t ≤ T.

14



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