Searching Threshold Inflation for India



Table 2b: Regression Result for Inflation, Threshold Inflation and GDPPC Growth Rate

Dependant Variable

GDPPCGR

Equation no.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Threshold Inflation

5.25

5.50

5.75

6.00

6.25

6.50

6.75

R- square

0.4985

0.5008

0.5044

0.5060

0.5050

0.5026

0.4991

Coef.

Coef.

Coef.

Coef.

Coef.

Coef.

Coef.

Explanatory variable

(std.

(std.

(std.

(std.

(std.

(std.

(std.

error)

error)

error)

_____error)

error)

error)

error)

∆GFCE(-1)

-1.181

-1.203

-1.246

-1.280

-1.315

-1.343

-1.379

(0.918)

(0.917)

(0.917)

(0.917)

(0.921)

(0.926)

(0.933)

∆INVPR(-1)

0.467*

0.478*

0.492**

0.505**

0.510**

0.515**

0.519**

(0.238)

(0.237)

(0.236)

(0.235)

(0.235)

(0.236)

(0.237)

∆INVPU(-2)

1.737***

1.749***

1.761***

1.760***

1.742***

1.724***

1.722***

(0.501)

(0.501)

(0.500)

(0.499)

(0.498)

(0.498)

(0.500)

INF(-1)

0.731**

0.702**

0.680**

0.651**

0.616**

0.578**

0.547**

(0.305)

(0.294)

(0.283)

(0.272)

(0.262)

(0.253)

(0.247)

INFVOL(-1)

-0.189

-0.183

-0.177

-0.173

-0.171

-0.171

-0.169

(0.152)

(0.152)

(0.152)

(0.152)

(0.153)

(0.154)

(0.155)

-1.045***

-1.028***

-1.020***

-

-

-

-

THRES

1.004***

0.982***

0.954***

0.935***

(0.347)

(0.339)

(0.331)

(0.324)

(0.318)

(0.312)

(0.310)

Test

(Test Statistics and p-value)

Wald Test

9.550

9.958

10.45

10.82

11.02

11.09

11.09

[0.005]

[0.003]

[0.001]

[0003]

[0.003]

[0.002]

[0.002]

Jarque-Bera Test of

0.829

0.779

0.718

0.735

0827

0.956

1.141

Normality

[0.66]

[0.677]

[0.798]

[0.692]

[0.661]

[0.619]

[0.561]

Breusch-Godfrey

Serial Correlation LM

Test

0.325

0.261

0.197

0.176

0.167

0.165

0.167

[0.725]

[0.772]

[0.822]

[0.840]

[0.847]

[0.48]

[0.847]

ARCH Test of

Conditional

Heteroskedasticity______

1.096

1.104

1.025

0.931

0.811

0.693

0.580

[0.302]

0.301]

[0.319]

[0.342]

[0.374]

[0.411]

[0.480]

Note: *, ** and *** indicate significant at 10, 5 and 1 percent level of significance.

Out of the 20 equation estimated with threshold inflation ranging from 4.00 to 8.50 this table
contains the result of threshold inflation ranging from 5.25 to 6.75.

Standard error given in ( ) bracket and p-value given in [ ] parenthesis.



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