Table 2a: Regression Result for Inflation, Threshold Inflation and GDP Growth Rate
|
Dependant Variable |
GDPGR | ||||||
|
Equation no. |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
Threshold Inflation |
5.25 |
5.50 |
5.75 |
6.00 |
6.25 |
6.50 |
6.75 |
|
R- square |
0.4443 |
0.4468 |
0.4514 |
0.4540 |
0.4536 |
0.4518 |
0.4487 |
|
Coef. |
Coef. |
Coef. |
Coef. |
Coef. |
Coef. |
Coef. | |
|
Explanatory variable |
(std. |
(std. |
(std. |
(std. |
(std. |
(std. |
(std. |
|
error) |
error) |
error) |
error) |
error) |
error) |
error) | |
|
∆GFCE(-1) |
-1.17 |
-1.19 |
-1.24 |
-1.27 |
-1.31 |
-1.34 |
-1.37 |
|
(0.94) |
(0.94) |
(0.94) |
(0.94) |
(0.94) |
(0.95) |
(0.95) | |
|
∆INVPR(-1) |
0.51** |
0.52** |
0.53** |
0.55** |
0.55** |
0.55** |
0.56** |
|
(0.24) |
(0.24 |
(0.24) |
(0.24) |
(0.24) |
(0.24) |
(0.24) | |
|
∆INVPU(-2) |
1.71*** |
1.73*** |
1.74*** |
1.74*** |
1.72*** |
1.70*** |
1.70*** |
|
(0.51) |
(0.51) |
(0.51) |
(0.51) |
(0.51) |
(0.51) |
(0.51) | |
|
INF(-1) |
0.72** |
0.69** |
0.67** |
0.64** |
0.61** |
0.57** |
0.55** |
|
(0.31) |
(0.30) |
(0.29) |
(0.28) |
(0.27) |
(0.26) |
(0.25) | |
|
INFVOL(-1) |
-0.19 |
-0.18 |
-0.17 |
-0.17 |
-0.17 |
-0.17 |
-0.16 |
|
(0.16) |
(0.16) |
(0.16) |
(0.16) |
(0.16) |
(0.16) |
(0.16) | |
|
POPGR(-1) |
-1.77* |
-1.75* |
-1.73* |
-1.73* |
-1.76* |
-1.80* |
-1.83* |
|
(0.88) |
(0.88) |
(0.87) |
(0.87) |
(0.86) |
(0.85) |
(0.85) | |
|
THRES |
-1.03*** |
-1.01*** |
-1.01*** |
-0.99*** |
-0.97*** |
-0.95*** |
-0.93*** |
|
(0.36) |
(0.35) |
(0.34) |
(0.33) |
(0.32) |
(0.32) |
(0.32) | |
|
Test |
(Test Statistics and p-value) | ||||||
|
Wald Test |
8.90 |
9.288 |
9.784 |
10.175 |
10.40 |
10.506 |
10.542 |
|
[0.006] |
[0.005] |
[0.004] |
[0.004] |
[0.003] |
[0.003] |
[0.003] | |
|
Jarque-Bera Test of |
0.858 |
0.810 |
0.736 |
0.737 |
0.810 |
0.920 |
1.083 |
|
Normality |
[0.650] |
[0.666] |
[0.691] |
[0.692] |
[0.666] |
[0.631] |
[0.581] |
|
Breusch-Godfrey Serial |
0.404 |
0.337 |
0.266 |
0.240 |
0.224 |
0.217 |
0.211 |
|
Correlation LM Test |
[0.671] |
[0.716] |
[0.767] |
[0.789] |
[0.800] |
[0.806] |
[0.810] |
|
ARCH Test of Conditional |
1.030 |
1.045 |
0.976 |
0.889 |
0.775 |
0.661 |
0550 |
|
Heteroskedasticity____________ |
[0.320] |
[0.314] |
[0.330] |
[0.353] |
[0.385] |
[0.442] |
[0.463] |
Note: : *, ** and *** indicate significant at 10, 5 and 1 percent level of significance.
Out of the 20 equation estimated with threshold inflation ranging from 4.00 to 8.50 this table
contains the result of threshold inflation ranging from 5.25 to 6.75.
Standard error given in ( ) bracket and p-value given in [ ] parenthesis.