Searching Threshold Inflation for India



Table 2a: Regression Result for Inflation, Threshold Inflation and GDP Growth Rate

Dependant Variable

GDPGR

Equation no.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Threshold Inflation

5.25

5.50

5.75

6.00

6.25

6.50

6.75

R- square

0.4443

0.4468

0.4514

0.4540

0.4536

0.4518

0.4487

Coef.

Coef.

Coef.

Coef.

Coef.

Coef.

Coef.

Explanatory variable

(std.

(std.

(std.

(std.

(std.

(std.

(std.

error)

error)

error)

error)

error)

error)

error)

∆GFCE(-1)

-1.17

-1.19

-1.24

-1.27

-1.31

-1.34

-1.37

(0.94)

(0.94)

(0.94)

(0.94)

(0.94)

(0.95)

(0.95)

∆INVPR(-1)

0.51**

0.52**

0.53**

0.55**

0.55**

0.55**

0.56**

(0.24)

(0.24

(0.24)

(0.24)

(0.24)

(0.24)

(0.24)

∆INVPU(-2)

1.71***

1.73***

1.74***

1.74***

1.72***

1.70***

1.70***

(0.51)

(0.51)

(0.51)

(0.51)

(0.51)

(0.51)

(0.51)

INF(-1)

0.72**

0.69**

0.67**

0.64**

0.61**

0.57**

0.55**

(0.31)

(0.30)

(0.29)

(0.28)

(0.27)

(0.26)

(0.25)

INFVOL(-1)

-0.19

-0.18

-0.17

-0.17

-0.17

-0.17

-0.16

(0.16)

(0.16)

(0.16)

(0.16)

(0.16)

(0.16)

(0.16)

POPGR(-1)

-1.77*

-1.75*

-1.73*

-1.73*

-1.76*

-1.80*

-1.83*

(0.88)

(0.88)

(0.87)

(0.87)

(0.86)

(0.85)

(0.85)

THRES

-1.03***

-1.01***

-1.01***

-0.99***

-0.97***

-0.95***

-0.93***

(0.36)

(0.35)

(0.34)

(0.33)

(0.32)

(0.32)

(0.32)

Test

(Test Statistics and p-value)

Wald Test

8.90

9.288

9.784

10.175

10.40

10.506

10.542

[0.006]

[0.005]

[0.004]

[0.004]

[0.003]

[0.003]

[0.003]

Jarque-Bera Test of

0.858

0.810

0.736

0.737

0.810

0.920

1.083

Normality

[0.650]

[0.666]

[0.691]

[0.692]

[0.666]

[0.631]

[0.581]

Breusch-Godfrey Serial

0.404

0.337

0.266

0.240

0.224

0.217

0.211

Correlation LM Test

[0.671]

[0.716]

[0.767]

[0.789]

[0.800]

[0.806]

[0.810]

ARCH Test of Conditional

1.030

1.045

0.976

0.889

0.775

0.661

0550

Heteroskedasticity____________

[0.320]

[0.314]

[0.330]

[0.353]

[0.385]

[0.442]

[0.463]

Note: : *, ** and *** indicate significant at 10, 5 and 1 percent level of significance.

Out of the 20 equation estimated with threshold inflation ranging from 4.00 to 8.50 this table
contains the result of threshold inflation ranging from 5.25 to 6.75.

Standard error given in ( ) bracket and p-value given in [ ] parenthesis.



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