Table 7: Effects of US monetary expansion: (permanent increase in money target of 1%)
|
year: US:______________________ |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
GDP |
0.55 |
0.33 |
0.21 |
0.15 |
0.11 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
0.06 |
|
potential. private. GDP |
0.22 |
0.19 |
0.14 |
0.11 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
0.06 |
|
private .consumption |
0.47 |
0.27 |
0.17 |
0.13 |
0.11 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
|
private.investment |
1.62 |
0.75 |
0.41 |
0.21 |
0.10 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
total.public.expenditure |
0.29 |
0.27 |
0.17 |
0.12 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
0.06 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
|
exports |
0.11 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
0.16 |
0.15 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.13 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
|
imports |
0.62 |
0.28 |
0.15 |
0.09 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
|
employment |
0.28 |
0.21 |
0.12 |
0.08 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
|
real.wage.costs |
0.04 |
0.21 |
0.13 |
0.09 |
0.07 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
|
price.level |
0.45 |
0.67 |
0.79 |
0.85 |
0.89 |
0.91 |
0.92 |
0.93 |
0.93 |
0.93 |
|
cons.price.level |
0.48 |
0.69 |
0.80 |
0.86 |
0.89 |
0.91 |
0.92 |
0.93 |
0.94 |
0.94 |
|
dollar.exchange.rate |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
DM.exchange.rate |
0.81 |
0.94 |
1.02 |
1.06 |
1.07 |
1.08 |
1.09 |
1.09 |
1.09 |
1.09 |
|
real.exchange.rate |
-0.45 |
-0.67 |
-0.78 |
-0.84 |
-0.88 |
-0.90 |
-0.91 |
-0.92 |
-0.92 |
-0.93 |
|
real.eff.exch.rate |
0.13 |
0.09 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
0.06 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
|
money |
1.01 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
|
short.rate * |
0.11 |
0.11 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
long.rate * |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
real.short.rate * |
-0.16 |
-0.04 |
-0.03 |
-0.02 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
inflation * |
0.45 |
0.22 |
0.12 |
0.06 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
|
unemployment.rate * |
-0.26 |
-0.20 |
-0.12 |
-0.07 |
-0.05 |
-0.04 |
-0.03 |
-0.03 |
-0.03 |
-0.02 |
|
debt. (% of GDP) * |
-0.20 |
0.00 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
deficit (% of GDP) * |
0.49 |
0.06 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
trade.balance (% of GDP) * |
-0.10 |
-0.03 |
-0.01 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
Note: percentage differences from base (except those marked *: absolute differences from base)
Table 7.a: International transmission of US monetary expansion: ( first year GDP effect)
|
DE |
FR |
IT |
UK |
ES |
NL |
BE |
DK |
IR |
PO |
GR |
OS |
SW |
SF |
US |
JA | |
|
GDP |
0.04 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
-0.05 |
-0.07 |
0.01 |
-0.04 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.02 |
0.55 |
0.04 |
Note: GDP effect in first year, percentage difference from base; monetary assumption: interest rate targeting in EU and Japan.
Table 8: Effects of EU wide monetary expansion: ( permanent increase in money target of
1%)
|
year: EU15:___________________ |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
GDP |
0.61 |
0.36 |
0.21 |
0.12 |
0.08 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
|
potential. private. GDP |
0.14 |
0.09 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
|
private .consumption |
0.51 |
0.22 |
0.13 |
0.09 |
0.07 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
|
private.investment |
1.36 |
0.79 |
0.40 |
0.15 |
0.02 |
-0.03 |
-0.06 |
-0.07 |
-0.07 |
-0.06 |
|
total.public.expenditure |
0.45 |
0.42 |
0.25 |
0.16 |
0.12 |
0.09 |
0.07 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
|
employment |
0.16 |
0.07 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
|
real.wage.costs |
0.28 |
0.43 |
0.24 |
0.15 |
0.09 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
|
price.level |
0.39 |
0.63 |
0.78 |
0.87 |
0.91 |
0.94 |
0.95 |
0.96 |
0.97 |
0.97 |
|
consumer.price.level |
0.41 |
0.68 |
0.83 |
0.92 |
0.97 |
1.00 |
1.01 |
1.02 |
1.02 |
1.03 |
|
dollar.exchange.rate |
0.57 |
0.78 |
0.90 |
0.97 |
1.00 |
1.01 |
1.01 |
1.01 |
1.01 |
1.01 |
|
real.exchange.rate |
0.18 |
0.15 |
0.12 |
0.10 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
|
real.eff.exch.rate |
0.05 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
|
money |
1.01 |
0.99 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
|
short.rate * |
0.26 |
0.16 |
0.08 |
0.04 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
long.rate * |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
real.short.rate * |
-0.01 |
-0.02 |
-0.02 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
|
inflation * |
0.39 |
0.25 |
0.15 |
0.08 |
0.05 |
0.03 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
|
unemployment.rate * |
-0.14 |
-0.06 |
-0.01 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
|
debt.(% of GDP) * |
-0.14 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
deficit. (% of GDP) * |
0.63 |
0.02 |
-0.02 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
trade.balance. (% of GDP) * |
-0.01 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
Note: percentage differences from base (except those marked *: absolute differences from base)
25
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