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Figure 4.1 Results for the Total Balance


Reaction to cycle


1,5

1

0,5

0

-0,5

-1

-1,5


I core balance: nu----actual balance -core balance ±1.96*std       ∣


^^^^^≡reaction to cycle: gamma----EC automatic stabiizer: alpha           reaction to cycle ±196*std


core balance: nu----EC cyclically adj.balance (based on


Icore discretionary policy: eta core discretionary policy ±1.96*std


Figure 4.2 Decomposition of the Total Balance

Core component (nu)


Cyclical component due to automatic stabilizer (alpha)




Irregular component (epsilon)



Cyclical component due to discretionary policy (gamma)

UC model



107




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