Table 4.1
Dependent variable: cyclically adjusted balances (in % of potential GDP)
|
Parameter: |
Total |
Primary |
Total |
Primary |
Total |
Primary |
Total |
Primary |
|
var(ε) |
0.14 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
var(η) |
0.86 |
1.15 |
0.79 |
0.84 |
0.95 |
1.04 |
0.74 |
0.85 |
|
var(ξ) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
. |
. |
. |
. |
|
var(ξ+) |
. |
. |
. |
. |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
var(ξ-) |
. |
. |
. |
. |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
Final states: | ||||||||
|
Core balance (μT) |
-1.06 |
1.88 |
48.72 |
46.84 |
-1.06 |
1.87 |
48.69 |
46.83 |
|
(-0.35) |
(-0.04) |
(0.03) |
(0.03) |
(0.21) |
(0.04) |
(0.04) |
(0.04) | |
|
Automatic stabilizer α *) |
0.47 |
0.47 |
0.43 |
-0.04 |
0.47 |
0.47 |
0.43 |
-0.04 |
|
Discretionary policy (γT) |
-0.35 |
-0.37 |
-0.30 |
0.07 |
. |
. |
. |
. |
|
(0.16) |
(0.16) |
(0.13) |
(0.14) |
. |
. |
. |
. | |
|
in upturns (γT+) |
. |
. |
. |
. |
-0.42 |
-0.40 |
-0.43 |
0.00 |
|
. |
. |
. |
. |
(0.19) |
(0.19) |
(0.16) |
(0.17) | |
|
in downturns (γT-) |
. |
. |
. |
. |
-0.04 |
0.04 |
-0.11 |
0.12 |
|
. |
. |
. |
. |
(0.42) |
(0.44) |
(0.23) |
(0.15) |
Estimation Results
Notes: Sample period: 1976-2004; standard deviations in parenthesis
*) Estimated by the OECD and used by the European Commission.
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