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Table 4.1

Dependent variable: cyclically adjusted balances (in % of potential GDP)

Parameter:	Total balance	Primary balance	Total revenues	Primary expenditure	Total balance	Primary balance	Total revenues	Primary expenditure
var(ε)	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
var(η)	0.86	1.15	0.79	0.84	0.95	1.04	0.74	0.85
var(ξ)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	.	.	.	.
var(ξ⁺)	.	.	.	.	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
var(ξ^-)	.	.	.	.	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00
Final states:
Core balance (μ_T)	-1.06	1.88	48.72	46.84	-1.06	1.87	48.69	46.83
	(-0.35)	(-0.04)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.21)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)
Automatic stabilizer α ^*)(OECD/EC)	0.47	0.47	0.43	-0.04	0.47	0.47	0.43	-0.04
Discretionary policy (γT)	-0.35	-0.37	-0.30	0.07	.	.	.	.
	(0.16)	(0.16)	(0.13)	(0.14)	.	.	.	.
in upturns (γT⁺)	.	.	.	.	-0.42	-0.40	-0.43	0.00
	.	.	.	.	(0.19)	(0.19)	(0.16)	(0.17)
in downturns (γT^-)	.	.	.	.	-0.04	0.04	-0.11	0.12
	.	.	.	.	(0.42)	(0.44)	(0.23)	(0.15)

Estimation Results

Notes: Sample period: 1976-2004; standard deviations in parenthesis

*) Estimated by the OECD and used by the European Commission.

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