assessments better. Nevertheless, in a setting where the objective is to give short term
policy advice based on the latest figures, it should be reminded that the large volatility
and uncertainty lies with the revisions to the nominal balance, from the initial estimated
to the final outcomes some years later,67 and that this uncertainty by far outweighs any
difference from using alternative approaches to estimate the cycle or the cyclical
component of the budget. However, looking at longer historical time series the issue is
quite different and the authors approach will hopefully soon be tested and used also for
additional countries.
See for example Gordo and Nogueira Martins (2007).
118
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