Appendix 5.B
The Fiscal Indicator: Some Additional Results
a) SVAR based output gap (line)
and ECRI-dating of cycle (bars).
b) SVAR-indicator of fiscal balance (% potential GDP)(line, right-
hand scale) versus debt ratio (% of GDP)(shaded area, left-hand
scale).
France
66.00 -
60.00 -
54.00 -
48.00 -
42.00 -
36.00 -
30.00 -
24.00 -
18.00 -
1980 ' ' 1983 ' ' 1986 ' ’ 1989 ’ ’ 1992 ’ ‘ 1995 ’ ’ 1998 ’ 2001 ' ’ 2004
- 2.00
- 1.00
- 0.00
- -1.00
- -2.00
- -3.00
- -4.00
Germany
70.00 -
65.00 -
60.00 -
55.00 -
50.00 -
45.00 -
40.00 -
35.00 -
30.00 -
19801 l1983l l1986l l1989l l1992l l1995l l1998l 2001 ’ 2004
- 2.70
- 1.80
- 0.90
- -0.00
- -0.90
- -1.80
- -2.70
- -3.60
Portugal
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
0.80
0.40
- -0.00
- -0.40
- -0.80
- -1.20
-1.60
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
1.20
70.00 -
65.00 -
60.00 -
55.00 -
50.00 -
45.00 -
40.00 -
35.00 -
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
- 6.00
- 4.00
- 2.00
- 0.00
- -2.00
- -4.00
- -6.00
- -8.00
Spain
70.00 -
60.00 -
50.00 -
40.00 -
30.00 -
20.00 -
10.00 -
- 4.00
- 3.00
- 2.00
- 1.00
- 0.00
- -1.00
- -2.00
- -3.00
- -4.00
156
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