The low level of uncertainty around the Spanish budget deficit reflects the low
uncertainty around the output gap estimates using our estimator of the output gap.
However, these narrow bands leave the budget well within the bounds of close to zero
over the last 3 years. The bounds using this estimate still suggest that the underlying
position is strong, but the estimator is not the only one available, and an alternative
estimator would help shed light on the position.
Figure 7.5 Spain - Budget Deficit Cyclical Adjustment - Real Time
spgb∙ SPGBR outturn -----SPGBR-Cyclically adjusted —I— SPGBR-adjusted upper bound
■ SPGBR-adjusted lower bound ......SPGBR-adjusted full sample
Figure 7.6 Netherlands - Budget Deficit Cyclical Adjustment - Real Time
-NLGBR outturn -----NLGBR-Cyclically adjusted —I—NLGBR-adjusted upper bound
■ NLGBR-adjusted lower bound NLGBR-adjusted full sample
196
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