The name is absent



output gaps, 144

old-age dependency ratio, 96

Orphanides and van Norden, 190, 191,

193, 195

output gap

error bounds, 208

estimates of, 189

measuring the uncertainty of, 195

production function approach, 190

reaction of the primary surplus to, 33

real-time estimation of, 190

uncertainty, 194

Pappa, 130

permanent balance rule, 18

Perotti, 130, 162

policy actions

non-systematic discretionary, 27

Ponzi financing schemes, 19

Portugal

deficit revisions in, 174

fiscal expansions and contractions,
147

fiscal policy responses, 138

general government balance of, 123

output gap, 125

reliability of fiscal data, 188

spending elasticities, 153

potential growth, 131

productivity shocks, 131

primary surplus

in EU15, 48

posterior distribution of, 42

primary surplus lag, 27

privatisations proceeds, 26

production function

parameters of, 208

public debt, 18

public finance

long-term sustainability, 131, 155

public finances

sustainability of, 121

Quandt-Andrews likelihood ratio test,
137

QUEST, 204

Quintos, 20

Ramey and Shapiro, 130

random walk, 107

Ravn and Uhlig, 125

Real Business Cycle models, 129

real discount rate, 78

Richardson, 63

Rogoff, 210

Rubin, 210

S2 sustainability gap indicator, 96

Sarte, 136

semi-structural VAR, 130

shock multiplier, 204

short-horizon fiscal measure, 62

Sims et al., 136

simultaneity bias, 35

skewness, 129

Spain

fiscal expansions and contractions,
147

fiscal policy responses, 138

general government balance of, 123

output gap, 125

output gap estimates, 193

spending elasticities, 153

Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), 11-

17, 59, 96-101, 121, 128, 187

application of, 148

preventive arm, 11

revised, 11, 60, 117-121, 131, 155,
169

Stock and Watson, 137

stock-flow adjustment (SFA), 24, 177

debt-specific, 169

deficit-specific, 168

structural balance

variation in, 135

structural breaks, 136

structural deficit, 134, 162

structural shocks, 162

structural VAR model, 128, 161

sustainability

ad hoc vs. model-based, 19

definition of, 19

sustainability condition, 40

sustainability conditions, 27

Sweden

reliability of fiscal data, 188

228




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