output gaps, 144
old-age dependency ratio, 96
Orphanides and van Norden, 190, 191,
193, 195
output gap
error bounds, 208
estimates of, 189
measuring the uncertainty of, 195
production function approach, 190
reaction of the primary surplus to, 33
real-time estimation of, 190
uncertainty, 194
Pappa, 130
permanent balance rule, 18
Perotti, 130, 162
policy actions
non-systematic discretionary, 27
Ponzi financing schemes, 19
Portugal
deficit revisions in, 174
fiscal expansions and contractions,
147
fiscal policy responses, 138
general government balance of, 123
output gap, 125
reliability of fiscal data, 188
spending elasticities, 153
potential growth, 131
productivity shocks, 131
primary surplus
in EU15, 48
posterior distribution of, 42
primary surplus lag, 27
privatisations proceeds, 26
production function
parameters of, 208
public debt, 18
public finance
long-term sustainability, 131, 155
public finances
sustainability of, 121
Quandt-Andrews likelihood ratio test,
137
QUEST, 204
Quintos, 20
Ramey and Shapiro, 130
random walk, 107
Ravn and Uhlig, 125
Real Business Cycle models, 129
real discount rate, 78
Richardson, 63
Rogoff, 210
Rubin, 210
S2 sustainability gap indicator, 96
Sarte, 136
semi-structural VAR, 130
shock multiplier, 204
short-horizon fiscal measure, 62
Sims et al., 136
simultaneity bias, 35
skewness, 129
Spain
fiscal expansions and contractions,
147
fiscal policy responses, 138
general government balance of, 123
output gap, 125
output gap estimates, 193
spending elasticities, 153
Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), 11-
17, 59, 96-101, 121, 128, 187
application of, 148
preventive arm, 11
revised, 11, 60, 117-121, 131, 155,
169
Stock and Watson, 137
stock-flow adjustment (SFA), 24, 177
debt-specific, 169
deficit-specific, 168
structural balance
variation in, 135
structural breaks, 136
structural deficit, 134, 162
structural shocks, 162
structural VAR model, 128, 161
sustainability
ad hoc vs. model-based, 19
definition of, 19
sustainability condition, 40
sustainability conditions, 27
Sweden
reliability of fiscal data, 188
228
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