Table 2.4 Estimates of the Response of the Primary Surplus to Debt in Alternative Models
|
Baseline |
Baseline |
OLSQ |
OLSQ |
Baseline |
Baseline NL2SLS (IV) |
DEBT2 |
DUM93 |
DUM96 |
DUM01 |
DUM93 DUM01 |
DUM96 DUM01 | |
|
Belgium |
003 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.Л |
0.15 |
0.14 |
0.03 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
|
0.01*** |
0.01*** |
0.01*** |
0.01*** |
0.04*** |
0.04*** |
0.01** |
0.01*** |
0.01*** |
0.01*** |
0.01*** |
0.02*** | |
|
Germany |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.10 |
0.06 ” |
|
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.02 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.03** |
0.03*** |
0.03** | |
|
Greece |
0.03 |
'^^^^0.0^3^^^^ |
' '^0.03 ''' |
" " 0.07 ^ ^ ' |
0.08 ’ |
””0.08 |
" "'0'.0'6 " |
0.01 |
'"0.03' "" |
....0..04.... |
" '0'.'0'0 ’ |
0.04 " |
|
0.02 |
0.02* |
0.01** |
0.01*** |
0.03*** |
0.03*** |
0.02*** |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.02** |
0.03 |
0.02 | |
|
Spain |
0.04 |
'^^"0.0^4^^" |
" " 0.04 " ’ |
" " 0.06 ^ ^ ' |
0.09 ’ |
""0.10 |
' "0'.0'4" |
0.03 |
' ^ ^ 0.02 " " |
' "0.04 "" |
" '0'.'0'3 ’ |
0.02"” |
|
0.01*** |
0.01*** |
0.01*** |
0.01*** |
0.03*** |
0.04*** |
0.01*** |
0.02 |
0.01* |
0.01*** |
0.02 |
0.01** | |
|
France |
0.00 |
””-0.01”’’ |
'""0.01"" |
" " -0.01 ^ ^ ' |
0.00 ’ |
'"-0.02"" |
" " -0.00 ^ |
0.05 |
"”-0.02 "" |
" " 0.01 " " |
" '0'.'0'6 ’ |
””-0.02'” |
|
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
0.03 | |
|
Italy |
0.06 |
””0.0б”” |
" " 0.06^ " |
' "^0.14 "' |
0.14 "" |
-"0.14 |
' "0'.0'9" |
0.06 |
' ^ ^ 0.06 " ' |
" " 0.05 " " |
" '0'.'0'5 ’ |
0.06 '” |
|
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.01*** |
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.02*** | |
|
Ireland |
0.02 |
””0.02”” |
' " '0.'01' ’ |
" " 0.03 ' ' ' |
0.22 |
"-0.24 |
' " 0.03 ' ' |
0.02 |
'"0.03' "" |
" " 0.01 " " |
" '0'.'0'2 ’ |
0.04”” |
|
0.01* |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
0.01** |
0.02 |
0.01** |
0.02 |
0.03 |
0.02 | |
|
Netherlands |
0.04 |
””0.03 ”” |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.08 |
0.10 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0'.03 " |
0.04 |
|
0.02** |
0.02* |
0.02** |
0.02*** |
0.03*** |
0.05** |
0.02** |
0.02** |
0.02*** |
0.02* |
0.02 |
0.02* | |
|
Austria |
0.02 |
””0.02” |
0.03 " |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0'.04 |
0.01” |
|
0.01* |
0.01* |
0.01* |
0.01*** |
0.02** |
0.02** |
0.02 |
0.02 ** |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01*** |
0.02 | |
|
Portugal |
0.15 |
0.19 |
0.03 " |
0.04 |
0.20 |
0.21 |
" " 0.23 ’ ’ |
0.16 |
0.17 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
0.17 ” |
|
0.05*** |
0.06*** |
0.01* |
0.01*** |
0.05*** |
0.04*** |
0.04*** |
0.05*** |
0.05*** |
0.05*** |
0.05*** |
0.05*** | |
|
Finland |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.02 " |
-0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
-0.26 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
-0.26 " |
0.00 ” |
|
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.09*** |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.09*** |
0.03 | |
|
Denmark |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.05 " |
0.08 |
0.11 |
0.15 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0'.07 " |
0.05 ” |
|
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.02** |
0.02*** |
0.03*** |
0.05*** |
0.02* |
0.02*** |
0.02* |
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.02*** | |
|
Sweden |
0.07 |
””0.07” |
0.09 |
0.05 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
0.09 |
0.09 |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0'.07 " |
0.04 ” |
|
0.03*** |
0.02*** |
0.02*** |
0.04 |
0.05*** |
0.07** |
0.03*** |
0.03** |
0.03 * |
0.03** |
0.04* |
0.03 | |
|
UK |
0.12 |
0.12 |
' " "0.1'3 ’ |
" " 0.08 ^ ^ ' |
0.53" " |
""0.50 |
..".0..10." |
0.15 |
^0.14 ' ' |
' "0.10 "" |
' "0.12 " " |
0.10”” |
|
0.03*** |
0.03*** |
0.04*** |
0.05 |
0.21*** |
0.19*** |
0.03*** |
0.03*** |
0.03*** |
0.05** |
0.04*** |
0.04** | |
|
US |
0.04 |
””0.0'4”” |
" " 0.04 " |
" " 0.05 ^ ^ ' |
0.14 "" |
"-0.17 |
' " 0.05 ' ' |
0.02 |
' ^ ^ 0.04 " ' |
' "0.04 "" |
" "-0.02 ’ |
0.01”” |
|
0.02** |
0.02*** |
0.02** |
0.03** |
0.07** |
0.10* |
0.01*** |
0.02 |
0.02** |
0.01** |
0.02 |
0.02 | |
|
Japan |
^-0.0Θ^^^^ |
””-0.00”” |
" " -0.00 " ' |
”'”-0.04'” |
.....-0.03"” |
’”-0.02'”” |
.....-0.00 ’ ’ |
......0.05..... |
' ’ ’ 0.02 " " |
""-O.01"" |
""0.0'5'"^ |
0.01' ”’ |
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.01*** |
0.07 |
0.07 |
0.01 |
0.01*** |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.01*** |
0.03 |
Note: '***' significant at 1%; '**' significant at 5%, '*' significant at 10%
Source: European Commission for EU15 and OECD for US and Japan.