Table 10: Budget balances and pension reforms: results from the estimation of fiscal rules (see table 1 for
sample definition)
|
Dependent |
Primary CAB |
Cyclically- |
Primary |
|
Constant |
-2.48*** |
8.14*** |
4.99*** |
|
(-4.40) |
(5.54) |
(2.85) | |
|
Lagged dependent |
0.71*** |
0.78*** |
0.91*** |
|
variable |
(17.57) |
(21.89) |
(22.76) |
|
Output gap |
-0.003 |
0.14*** |
0.14*** |
|
(-0.08) |
(3.65) |
(2.86) | |
|
Lagged debt/GDP |
0.048*** |
0.034*** |
-0.018** |
|
ratio |
(5.5) |
(4.21) |
(-2.18) |
|
Dummy for |
-0.24 |
-0.22 |
-0.05 |
|
pension reform |
(-1.18) |
(-1.3) |
(-0.24) |
|
N. obs. |
224 |
224 |
224 |
|
R sq. |
0.69 |
0.79 |
0.73 |
|
Chi sq |
1128 |
405731 |
255782 |
Notes: Estimations method: fixed effects, instrumental variables regression. The
output gap is instrumented with its own lag and the US lagged output gap. All
fiscal variables are expressed as shares on potential output.
Z statistics are reported in parentheses. *, **, and *** denote, respectively,
significance at the 10, 5 and 1 per cent level. Coefficients for country fixed
effects are not reported.
The pension reform dummy is constructed as an indicator taking value 1 if a
pension reform was carried out in the current or previous year and zero
otherwise.
Source: Authors’ calculation on data described in table 1 and DG ECFIN AMECO database.
128
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