Figure 2. Income support for disability
Share of working age population non-employed and receiving disability benefits1 (per cent)
1999
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
|
OECD average ▲ AUS OECD average A _________________________________GBR___________ |
A-" TOL NOR - " AaSWE „-" ABEL „ NLD DNK A USA " - - "нт_________A_____________________ita___________________ |
|
DEU A-CAN „ FIR∖ ESP MEX ʃ- - " kKORA TUR |
- " PRT |
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
19902
1. EU: 15 European countries excluding Finland, Greece, Ireland and Luxembourg.
2. 1995 for Austria, Mexico and Poland.
Source: OECD (2005), Going for Growth, Paris.
13. There are also cases, were reform efforts have been considerable, but reform outcomes tend to fall
short of expectations. Majnoni d’Intignano (2001), for instance, argues that health reforms in France are
recurrent, actually close to one every year between 1975 and 2000, but have barely dented spending growth,
or have slowed growth in one year, but with a catch-up towards the underlying spending trend the next. The
costing of changes in government programmes is not too difficult for programmes that are relatively simple
and where at least some changes in policy parameters influence private decision making in a
straightforward way: the implications of pension reforms, for instance, have been well researched by the
Commission or the OECD. More complex issues, like the effects of health care reforms are much more
difficult to quantify. There are many actors and incentive effects are difficult to model.
14. The cost of inaction can be illustrated by resorting to the now fashionable distinction between the
Nordic, Anglo-Saxon, continental and Mediterranean social models. Boeri (2002), for instance, compares
their performance in terms of meeting three objectives: reductions in income inequality and poverty;
protection against uninsurable labour market risk; and the reward to labour market participation. And
indeed, geography and economic characteristic tend to coincide. Sapir (2005) uses the same typology, but
focuses on efficiency and equity aspects: Efficiency is measured by a high employment rate and equity by a
low poverty rate.
15. Figure 3 shows that all Nordic and Anglo-Saxon countries are above average in terms of
employment, whereas most continental countries (except Austria and the Netherlands) and Mediterranean
countries (except Portugal) rank below average. On the other hand, poverty is relatively high in the
Mediterranean and Anglo-Saxon countries and relatively low in the continental and Nordic countries. Sapir
(2005) has analysed the reasons for these differences. What is important in the context of this paper is the
fiscal sustainability of social models. Net public debt as a per cent of GDP is much lower in the “efficient”
countries and much higher in the continental and Mediterranean countries (Table 2). Moreover, debt does
not tend to come down much in the high-debt countries (except Belgium), while it has staid low or even
come down further in most better-performing countries.
48