Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 11



number of such articles, then the fraction of extant knowledge known by an individual would
decline at the same rate: -5.5% per year.2

Figure 1: Journal Article Publications per Year, Worldwide

Notes: This figure presents the number of publications in each year, worldwide, as recorded by the Institute of
Scientific Information’s Web of Science database, pooling articles across all fields of science and engineering and
social sciences. Growth rates in publications are similar looking only at authors with U.S. addresses. Over 90% of
the articles are, consistently, in science and engineering fields. See text for further discussion.

Below we will examine richer and more systematic evidence about the implications of
such expansions of knowledge. But it should be clear at this point that innovators face a shifting
landscape in which they become educated and produce new ideas. In fact, one may expect two
natural responses in innovators’ educational decisions as the volume of knowledge expands:

1. First, innovators may spend longer in education;

2. Second, innovators may seek narrower expertise.

2 That is, let N be the total number of papers (or other codified ideas) in the world and let this number grow at rate
gN. Let Q be the fixed number of papers that an individual has time to learn. Then the share of extant knowledge
known by the individual is
s = Q/N, and the growth rate of s is then gs = - gN.



More intriguing information

1. For Whom is MAI? A theoretical Perspective on Multilateral Agreements on Investments
2. Distortions in a multi-level co-financing system: the case of the agri-environmental programme of Saxony-Anhalt
3. The name is absent
4. The name is absent
5. Demand Potential for Goat Meat in Southern States: Empirical Evidence from a Multi-State Goat Meat Consumer Survey
6. The name is absent
7. Nonparametric cointegration analysis
8. Transfer from primary school to secondary school
9. ‘I’m so much more myself now, coming back to work’ - working class mothers, paid work and childcare.
10. Change in firm population and spatial variations: The case of Turkey
11. The name is absent
12. Expectations, money, and the forecasting of inflation
13. Searching Threshold Inflation for India
14. Citizenship
15. Migrating Football Players, Transfer Fees and Migration Controls
16. The name is absent
17. The name is absent
18. Financial Markets and International Risk Sharing
19. The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate
20. On the Real Exchange Rate Effects of Higher Electricity Prices in South Africa