Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 11

The role of the individual in science is rapidly changing. Recent literature demonstrates
(i) ubiquitous shifts towards teamwork in science, and (ii) decreasing innovative output by
younger scholars. This paper will review these facts, consider their explanation, and then
consider their implications for science policy. At root, this paper asks a simple question: in light
of these substantial shifts in the scientific process, how might science policy evolve?

To motivate the basic dynamics in science and frame them in pursuit of rethinking policy,
consider the following two observations. First, innovators are not born at the frontier of
knowledge; rather, innovators first undertake significant education. Second, if knowledge
accumulates and fields deepen over time, then ensuing generations of innovators can face an
increasing educational burden. Put another way, if one wants to stand on the shoulders of giants
(taking Newton’s famous aphorism) then one must first climb up the giants’ backs. As
knowledge accumulates, the harder this climb can become.

Empirically, one starting point to motivate this ‘burden of knowledge’ perspective and
the associated dynamics in science is to consider knowledge stocks and flows. Figure 1 shows
the annual number of journal articles published worldwide.¹ In 2006, there were 941,000 articles
published, 90% of which appeared in science and engineering journals. Collectively, these
articles cited 4,372,000 unique journal articles published in prior years. It is clear that one
individual can know only a fraction of this knowledge. Moreover, assuming that individuals
devote a particular amount of time to absorbing knowledge, then it is clear that the fraction of
such knowledge known by any one individual will be decreasing with time. As indicated in
Figure 1, the growth rate in publications averages 5.5% per year, which doubles collective
publication rates every 13 years. If any particular individual meaningfully engages only a fixed

¹ These article counts come from the Institute of Science Information’s Web of Science database.

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