Current Agriculture, Food & Resource Issues
S.B. Cash et al.
Table 1 Price and Production Changes from Organophosphate Ban
|
Crop |
Change in price (Percentage) |
Change in production* | |
|
California |
Rest of U.S. | ||
|
Alfalfa |
0.93 |
-184,845 |
48,743 |
|
Almonds |
0.48 |
-1,356 |
n/a |
|
Broccoli |
16.00 |
-111,285 |
2,083 |
|
Carrots |
>0.01 |
-5 |
-3 |
|
Cotton |
1.69 |
-1,148 |
-19,214 |
|
Grapes |
0.05 |
-999 |
-265 |
|
Lettuce, head |
0.36 |
-12,778 |
3,864 |
|
Lettuce, leaf |
0.46 |
-1,510 |
-148 |
|
Oranges |
0.32 |
-40,517 |
-28,137 |
|
Peaches & nectarines |
0.32 |
-1,561 |
-2,016 |
|
Strawberries |
0.26 |
-508 |
-743 |
|
Tomatoes, fresh |
0.03 |
-388 |
-223 |
|
Tomatoes, processed |
0.16 |
-10,849 |
114 |
|
Walnuts |
0.58 |
-1,091 |
n/a |
* Change in tons
Source: Metcalfe et al. (2002).
Results of the economic analysis suggest that the total loss to producers and
consumers in California from banning all OP use will be approximately $200 million.
There is significant uncertainty as to the final level of OP restrictions that might be
imposed, so this is only an order-of-magnitude estimate of the effects. However, these
effects represent only about 2 percent of the total revenue generated by the 15 crops
studied in California. While the overall effects seem small, they may be more intense in
some segments than others. The researchers found that the degree of impact rests on the
effectiveness of alternative pest control strategies producers have to choose from when
faced with an OP ban. In some cases, OP pesticides have no close substitute, and
cancellation will have larger effects. For instance, the losses in broccoli, one of the crops
most sensitive to an OP ban, are driven by the lack of an alternative insecticide to treat
cabbage maggot.
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