New Evidence on the Puzzles. Results from Agnostic Identification on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates.



dist. for q(k), 5 yrs.

Peak of the Real Exchange Rate US/ GE
dist. for q(k), 24 mo.

US-Germany:

Peak of the Real Exchange Rate US/ GE

dist. for q(k) - q(0), 24 mo.

Change of the Real Exchange Rate US/GE q(k) - q(0)



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Peak of the Real Exchange Rate US/ UK

US-UK:

Peak of the Real Exchange Rate US/ UK

Change of the Real Exchange Rate US/UK q(k) - q(0)


6-


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Peak of the Real Exchange Rate US/ JP

US-Japan:

Peak of the Real Exchange Rate US/ JP

Change of the Real Exchange Rate US/JP q(k) - q(0)



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Figure 6: Real exchange rate q . Posterior distribution for the size and
location of the peak appreciation q(k) as well as for the change relative to
the impact reaction q(k) - q(0), conditional on a US monetary policy con-
traction, for the benchmark identification, EE VAR. The left column shows
the distribution over the first 20 quarters, whereas the other two columns
use a monthly scale for a closer examination of the first 24 months.

39



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