Manufacturing Earnings and Cycles: New Evidence



Table 4: Dynamic correlation at real earnings cycle frequencies

period

GFCF

Y

я

II
phase      pc

phase

Pc

phase

Pc

phase

Pe

P

4.18

0.01

0.82***

0.01

0.94***

0.05

0.86***

06    0.74***

ʌ

5.94

0.02

0.49**

0.03

0.86***

0.04

0.56***

W/Cp

5.82

0.04

0.71***

0.12

0.60**

0.18

0.25

W/Pp

6.74

-0.09

0.41*

Notes:

(i) W: standard hourly wage; μ: premium markup; λ: proportion of workers working overtime; Pp:
producer price index; Cp: consumer price index, GFCF: gross fixed captial formation, Y: output, N:
employment, II: inventory investment; (ii) pc: in-phase correlation, phase shift: relative to cycle length;
(iii) */**/***; dynamic correlation is significant at the 10/5/1 per cent level.



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