Manufacturing Earnings and Cycles: New Evidence



Table 3: Real earnings and economic cycles: explained variance

(!)

GFCF

(2)

(3)

(!)

(2)

(3)

(!)

я

(2)

(3)

(!)

II

(2)

(3)

F

0.00*

0.04**

0.32

0.00

0.05***

0.47**

0.00

0.04**

0.47**

0.01*

0.04

0.34**

ʌ

0.05**

0.58**

0.17***

0.07***

0.62***

0.18***

0.07***

0.62***

0.19***

0.06

0.62

0.14

W/Cp

0.10**

0.36**

0.08

0.09*

0.37**

0.13

0.06

0.34**

0.10

0.09

0.34

0.06

W/Pp

0.12

0.31*

0.06

0.09

0.30

0.13

0.06

0.25

0.11

0.08

0.25

0.03

Notes:

(i) W: standard hourly wage; μ: premium markup; λ: proportion of workers working overtime; Pp: producer
price index;
Cp: consumer price index, GFCF: gross fixed captial formation, Y : output, N: employment, II:
inventory investment; (ii) explained variance: share of variance explained by variance of cycle measure in the
respective frequency range; (iii) (1): 7-10 years (Juglar cycle), (2): 5-7 years, (3): 3-5 years (Kitchin cycle); (iv)
*∕rr /***: share of total variance is significant at the 10/5/1 per cent level.



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