An Intertemporal Benchmark Model for Turkey’s Current Account

p 1 = 5 and p 0 = 4

p ₁ = 6 and p ₀ = 5

χ¹

12.58530

6.687759

Critical χ² (4)

(at 5% level of significance)

9.49

9.49

Variable

Coefficient

Standard error

T-statistic

^δ Zt-1

-0.5445

0.2086

-2.6106

^δ Zt-2

-0.0488

0.2272

-0.2146

^δ Zt-3

-0.2472

0.2241

-1.1030

^δ Zt-4

0.5985

0.2282

2.6230

^δ Zt-5

0.2566

0.1577

1.6276

cat-1

-0.0434

0.1830

-0.2373

cat-2

-0.4479

0.2272

-1.9709

cat-3

0.4899

0.2425

2.0202

cat-4

-0.4388

0.2549

-1.7219

cat-5

0.2158

0.2075

1.0401

F-Statistic for ca = 2.443
p-value = 0.0525