An Intertemporal Benchmark Model for Turkey’s Current Account

Variable

Coefficient

Standard error

T-statistic

^δ Zt-1

-0.1523

0.2334

-0.6525

^δ Zt-2

0.0301

0.2542

0.1184

^δ Zt-3

-0.0231

0.2508

-0.0920

^δ Zt-4

0.1633

0.2553

0.6396

^δ Zt-5

0.2263

0.1765

1.2827

cat-1

0.7780

0.2048

3.7986

cat-2

-0.3181

0.2543

-1.2507

cat-3

0.1260

0.2714

0.4645

cat-4

0.3260

0.2852

1.1430

cat-5

-0.3679

0.2322

-1.5843

F-Statistic for ∆ z = 0.5792
p-value = 0.7155

World rate of interest

Coefficients

At r = 3%

At r = 6%

At r = 2%

^δ Zt

0.12570

0.14856

0.1166

^δ Zt-1

-0.28255

-0.24566

-0.29682

^δ Zt-2

-0.34635

-0.3139

-0.35877

^δ Zt-3

-0.56315

-0.53404

-0.57442

^δ Zt-4

-0.12544

-0.12134

-0.12717

cat

0.42043

0.39709

0.4285

cat-1

0.06800

0.07503

0.06536

cat-2

-0.18781

-0.17552

-0.1927

cat-3

0.18190

0.18104

0.18223

cat-4

-0.33335

-0.31116

-0.34146