An Intertemporal Benchmark Model for Turkey’s Current Account



βt Ε[u(ct)]                                                                        (1)

t=0

where β is the discount rate [ 0 β < 1 ], u is the utility function [ u '(ct ) 0 and u ''(ct )< 0 ],
and
c is consumption of a single traded good. Utility is maximized subject to a dynamic budget
constraint given by

bt+1 =(1+r)bt +qt -ct -it -gt                                                                 (2)

where b is the level of foreign bonds held by the economy, r is the world rate of interest, qt is
GDP,
it is the level of investment, and g t is government expenditure.

The current account balance is given by

cat = bt+1 -bt                                                                                   (3)

Assuming a no-Ponzi game and the first order conditions with the dynamic budget constraint,
the optimal consumption function is given by

* r , .
ct = ~ 1 bt +

t θ t


1+r


Et


(1⅛ ∆(,t+j- it+j - gt+j ) [

j=0 (1 + r )                           J


(4)


where Ct* is the optimal path of consumption and θ is the proportion that reflects consumption
tilting which is given by the relation between rate of interest (
r) and the rate of time preference
(β).5 If θ < 1, then the country is consuming more than the national cash flow which means the
country is tilting consumption to the present. If θ > 1 then the country is consuming less than the
national cash flow which implies that the country is tilting consumption to the future. If θ = 1
then consumption equals the national cash flow. There is no consumption tilting in this case.

From optimal consumption Ct* we can compute the optimal consumption smoothing current
account
Ca t* as follows

**

(5)


Cat = yt - it - gt -θCt

5 For example, if we assume a quadratic utility function, θ = βr (1 + r)∕[β (1 + r)2 -1].



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