Return Predictability and Stock Market Crashes in a Simple Rational Expectations Model



6.3 Proof of Proposition 2

We know that for constant aggregate RRA

Var


Vτ Vτ

ln —

к  Vt


Dt


D D D-

= Var I ln —
к
Dt


t<τ.


By Proposition 1, for declining aggregate RRA ηtΦ,D, the elasticity ηtS,D > 1
so that the conditional variance of asset returns is higher than the (condi-
tional) variance of the dividend process, i.e.

Var


(l,V


Dt


Dτ

> Var I ln —

Dt


t<τ.


(11)


Consider now the unconditional variance (i.e. θ =0):

Var


(I- S)


Var(E(lnVτ |Dt) -lnVt)+E(Var(lnVτ |Dt))(12)


with

E(lnVτ |Dt)-lnVt


- 1∑V (Ss)2)


ds


We need to show that Var


is greater than


Var


(∣-3


Var(lnDτ |Dt) .


(14)


From (11) it follows that the second term on the right hand side of equa-
tion (12) exceeds
Var ɑn D-^. As the first term on the right hand side of
equation (12) is also positive, we are done. The proof is the same for the
variance conditional on
Dθ ; 0 < θ < t.

6.4 Proof of Proposition 3

Since by definition CERt- f- (dSs/ Ss) + f- ( Ds/ Ss rf ) ds, and the
riskless rate
rf is assumed constant, the covariance is given by

Cov ( CERt-v (S- ) rf Dt) = Cov


---
ddSs DDs D

J Ss- + J S-ds, J dμv(Ss)



22




More intriguing information

1. Altruism and fairness in a public pension system
2. Studies on association of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi with gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus and its effect on improvement of sorghum bicolor (L.)
3. THE ECONOMICS OF COMPETITION IN HEALTH INSURANCE- THE IRISH CASE STUDY.
4. Input-Output Analysis, Linear Programming and Modified Multipliers
5. Moi individuel et moi cosmique Dans la pensee de Romain Rolland
6. Anti Microbial Resistance Profile of E. coli isolates From Tropical Free Range Chickens
7. Innovation and business performance - a provisional multi-regional analysis
8. Nurses' retention and hospital characteristics in New South Wales, CHERE Discussion Paper No 52
9. Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries
10. The name is absent