On Dictatorship, Economic Development and Stability

In contrast, if the natural level of social order is high, the population enjoys a relatively
peaceful order and is less ready to tolerate the dictator’s predatory behavior.

5.2 The level of technology, A

∂I ∂I ∂q
— =--> > 0

∂A ∂q ∂A

The partial derivative of I with respect to A shows that the insurrection constraint is an
increasing function of A. The higher the level of technology, the higher the threshold. This
result means that economic growth, represented by an exogenous increase in the level of
technology, augments the perimeter of dictatorship’s political stability. The dictator has
thus more leeway to satisfy his preferences and increase predation/repression to impose
them.¹¹

In economies with low level of technology, the dictator is more vulnerable. This is es-
pecially the case when the natural level of social order is relatively high. However, a
stagnant or declining economy is more likely to experience difficulties to maintain social
order and, hence, often turns out to secure the political power of the dictator.

The largest perimeter of dictatorship’s political stability occurs when economic growth is
high and the natural level of social order is low.

¹¹This result seems to be supported by the evolution of the Chinese regime. The Polity IV scoring
indicates that the Chinese dictatorship has hardened with economic expansion from 1978 to 2002 (see
the Polity IV 2002 database and Marshall and Jaggers (2002)).

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