Consumption Behaviour in Zambia: The Link to Poverty Alleviation?



K. Ludi: consumption behaviour in Zambia

10


more economically realistic in explaining real PCE. The short-run regression that
explains real PCE in Zambia is therefore:

ln Ct = ares _ co int t - 1 + β1 ln Y / capitat - 1 + β2 r _ tbillt - 2 + β3 ln M3t - 2 +

β4 ln Gt - 1 + β5 ln Tt + β6 r _ Iendrate + β7 ln Invt - 1   9                   ( 4 )

The results of the ECM regression are in table 3.

Table 3: Regression results of the error correction model (dependent variable: D(LN_CONS_ZK)10)

Sample (adjusted): 1974 2001

Included observations: 28 after adjustments

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

RES_COINT(-1)

-0.421942

0.109743

-3.844812

0.0011

LN_GDP_CAPITA(-1)

-0.028966

0.009264

-3.126732

0.0056

D(R_TBILL(-2))

-0.002131

0.000498

-4.282284

0.0004

D(LN_M3_ZK(-2))

-0.165104

0.078352

-2.107218

0.0486

D(LN_GCONS_ZK(-1))

0.132035

0.064002

2.062989

0.0531

D(LN_INDTAX_ZK)

-0.251680

0.055979

-4.495959

0.0002

D(R_LENDRATE)

-0.001372

0.000465

-2.950467

0.0082

D(LN_INV(-1))

0.072068

0.039942

1.804303

0.0871

D(DUM_92)

-0.517581

0.065953

-7.847746

0.0000

R-squared

0.863362

Adjusted R-squared

0.805830

The coefficients of the independent variables may not be economically evaluated since
the variables have been differenced once. However, the variables may be statistically
evaluated. The t-statistics of all the independent variables are statistically significant at a
10 per cent level of significance. The adjusted-R2 value indicates that 81 per cent of the
short-run variation in real PCE can be explained by the model
. Real PCE in Zambia in

10


Where: Ct = real PCE; Yt /capita = real GDP per capita; r_tbillt = real treasury bill yield rates; M3t
= real M3 money supply; Gt = real government consumption expenditure; Tt = real net indirect tax
revenue;
r_lendratet = real short-term lending rate; and Invt = real gross domestic capital
formation, all at time
t.

D(...) indicates that a variable has been differenced once to remove non-stationarity.



More intriguing information

1. The name is absent
2. Deletion of a mycobacterial gene encoding a reductase leads to an altered cell wall containing β-oxo-mycolic acid analogues, and the accumulation of long-chain ketones related to mycolic acids
3. The name is absent
4. Voting by Committees under Constraints
5. Spatial patterns in intermunicipal Danish commuting
6. TWENTY-FIVE YEARS OF RESEARCH ON WOMEN FARMERS IN AFRICA: LESSONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS; WITH AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY
7. Altruism and fairness in a public pension system
8. An Economic Analysis of Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Consumption: Implications for Overweight and Obesity among Higher- and Lower-Income Consumers
9. PACKAGING: A KEY ELEMENT IN ADDED VALUE
10. ‘I’m so much more myself now, coming back to work’ - working class mothers, paid work and childcare.