CGE modelling of the resources boom in Indonesia and Australia using TERM



The contribution of broad sectors to regional income provides another way of presenting
the winners and losers from the resources boom in the domestic economy. In the case of
Urban_SA, more than the entire loss of income (-0.67 percent) is attributed to losses in
TCFs (-0.10 percent) and other manufactures (-0.78 percent). Among the industries
losing from rising import competition is the motor vehicles sector, which is relatively
prominent in the Urban_SA economy. Other manufactures dominates the losing sectors
in most regions, but in the minerals regions, these losses are overwhelmed by gains in
resources. Urban_SA, as shown in table 3, loses from the minerals shocks (as labour is
drawn to minerals regions); from the imported energy shocks (which impact negatively
on all regions); and from the other import price shocks (which harm import-competing
sectors, although lowering prices for households). The only group of shocks benefiting
Urban_SA is farm and food export prices.

Table 5. Contribution of broad sectors to regional income listed in order of negative GRP

effects (% change in output)

Agriculture

Black coal

Oil & gas

Metal oreas

Other mining

Food products

TCFs

Petrol. & coal
products

Basic metals

Rest of
manufactures

Services

Total

Urban_SA

0.03

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.12

0.08 -0.10

0.00

0.07

-0.78

-0.08

-0.67

Other_VIC

0.21

0.00

0.02

0.10

0.06

0.27 -0.16

0.03

0.43

-1.47

-0.14

-0.65

Other_SA

0.25

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.08

0.14 -0.02

0.01

0.42

-1.55

0.02

-0.62

Other_NSW

0.10

0.13

0.00

0.05

0.07

0.10 -0.10

0.01

0.26

-0.96

-0.17

-0.50

Urban_NSW

0.00

0.04

0.00

0.00

0.03

0.04 -0.15

0.00

0.04

-0.56

0.06

-0.47

Urban_ACT

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.02 -0.02

0.00

0.00

-0.27

-0.19

-0.44

Urban_VIC

0.01

0.00

0.27

0.01

0.03

0.08 -0.27

0.00

0.05

-0.51

0.08

-0.26

Urban_QLD

0.00

0.07

0.05

0.05

0.14

0.09 -0.07

0.00

0.14

-0.88

0.17

-0.26

Other_TAS

-0.05

0.00

0.00

0.30

0.04

0.02 -0.39

0.00

0.35

-0.24

-0.19

-0.14

Urban_TAS

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01 -0.06

0.00

0.13

-0.10

-0.04

-0.04

Other_QLD

-0.14

0.14

0.06

0.30

0.14

0.06 -0.06

0.02

0.90

-1.20

-0.24

-0.02

Mineral_NSW

0.03

2.86

0.00

0.16

0.16

0.00 -0.10

-0.03

0.79

-2.40

-1.28

0.23

Mineral_VIC

0.46

0.00

4.32

0.05

0.32

0.60 -0.32

0.00

0.83

-4.55

-1.47

0.23

Urban_WA

-0.04

0.01

0.33

0.64

0.39

-0.03 -0.08

0.00

0.11

-0.58

0.35

1.11

Mineral_SA

-0.03

0.00

1.44

1.27

0.27

-0.04 -0.01

0.04

0.37

-1.91

-0.20

1.18

Mineral_QLD

-0.16

2.58

0.09

0.63

0.18

-0.12 -0.01

0.03

1.15

-1.15

-1.39

1.80

Mineral_NT

-0.05

0.00

0.65

2.32

0.16

-0.01 -0.01

0.00

0.07

-0.33

-0.66

2.11

Mineral_WA

-0.77

0.16

0.16

3.61

0.26

-0.15 -0.01

0.03

1.26

-1.15

-0.26

3.12

National________

-0.02

0.27

0.16

0.31

0.11

0.06 -0.13

0.00

0.29

-0.89

-0.12

0.04

For the biggest winner, Mineral_WA, the contribution to GRP growth from mining is 3.9
percent (Table 5), reflecting both the magnitude of price shocks and the share of mining
in Mineral_WA’s economy: mining’s value-added is $11.8 billion out of total regional
value-added of $28.5 billion (Table 2). One curious result in the minerals regions is that
the services sector makes a larger negative contribution to GRP than in other regions.
This is because despite services being relatively income-elastic, and therefore in
increased demand as income grows, the prices of labour-intensive services also rise with
wages. Therefore, they will suffer larger cost increases than services in non-booming
regions in which real wages are not rising—so users will source more of their services
from cheaper, neighbouring regions. In the case of Mineral_WA, the negative



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