High school graduates who first enter two-year institutions have both significantly higher
dropout rates and lower graduation rates than those who first enter four-year institutions.
Since graduation and dropout are measured with respect to four-year degrees, this may
simply reflect the fact that high school graduates who enter two-year institutions may
leave college after attaining a two-year degree.
The state of the labor market has long been thought to affect educational behavior.
The estimated impact of an increase in the local unemployment rate on the enrollment
hazard was positive, although the impact was only statistically significant at the 10
percent level. An increase in the local unemployment rate was found to have a
statistically significant negative impact on the graduation hazard.
In-state public tuition levels were found to impact educational attainment
primarily through college dropout behavior. While the estimated impact of increased in-
state public tuition levels on the college enrollment rate was negative, the estimated
impact was imprecise and not statistically significant at conventional significance levels.
However, increased in-state public tuition levels has a significantly positive impact on
dropout with some weak evidence that the impact is moderated by family income.
To check the robustness of our estimated impact of delayed entry, Table 4
presents the estimated impact of delaying college enrollment by one year for several
alternative model specifications. Rows 1 through 3 of Table 4 present the estimated
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