Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives

1-Day Ahead

3-Day-Ahead

5-Day-Ahead

7-Day-Ahead

9-Day-Ahead

11-Day-Ahead

Atlanta

Persistence

4.50

8.00

8.72

9.07

8.99

9.28

Climatological

6.93

6.88

6.84

7.04

6.93

6.59

Autoregressive

4.12

6.45

6.69

7.03

6.89

6.59

EarthSat

2.74

3.84

5.10

6.04

6.65

7.00

Chicago

Persistence

6.73

10.50

11.06

11.54

11.74

11.99

Climatological

8.74

8.72

8.72

8.50

8.88

8.55

Autoregressive

6.06

8.38

8.57

8.45

8.84

8.53

EarthSat

3.22

4.70

6.31

7.46

8.48

8.92

Las Vegas

Persistence

3.78

6.15

7.08

7.71

7.96

7.93

Climatological

5.99

5.85

5.80

6.02

5.97

5.80

Autoregressive

3.57

5.20

5.58

5.92

5.97

5.78

EarthSat

2.54

3.28

4.19

5.32

5.81

6.04

Philadelphia

Persistence

5.53

8.83

9.83

9.87

9.55

10.18

Climatological

7.12

6.95

7.27

7.19

6.98

7.19

Autoregressive

4.95

6.74

7.23

7.15

6.95

7.08

EarthSat

2.61

3.91

5.35

6.26

7.24

8.37