NATURAL RESOURCE SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH



Table 3. Logging and Wood Products Sectors--Percent Change for Selected Variables for Alternative Forest Service (FS) Harvest Levels Relative to
Baseline Harvest Level

Micro Affects: Short Run Scenario

Industry

Variable

Base

0.9*FS

0.8*FS

0.7*FS

0.6*FS

0.5*FS

0.4*FS

0.3*FS

0.2*FS

0.1*FS

0.0*FS

LOGGING

X

0.00%

1.66%

2.24%

2.07%

1.26%

-0.17%

-2.27%

-5.12%

-8.85%

-13.73%

-20.20%

XD

0.00%

-2.23%

-5.72%

-10.04%

-15.06%

-20.67%

-26.87%

-33.66%

-41.10%

-49.27%

-58.33%

XXD

0.00%

26.49%

47.49%

64.61%

78.43%

89.06%

96.44%

100.37%

100.21%

95.13%

83.61%

Q

0.00%

-1.32%

-3.59%

-6.46%

-9.81%

-13.55%

-17.65%

-22.13%

-27.01%

-32.37%

-38.41%

PX

0.00%

1.00%

1.00%

2.00%

2.00%

3.00%

3.00%

4.00%

4.00%

4.00%

5.00%

PD

0.00%

1.00%

3.00%

6.00%

8.00%

11.00%

15.00%

19.00%

23.00%

29.00%

36.00%

PDD

0.00%

5.00%

9.00%

12.00%

15.00%

17.00%

19.00%

21.00%

22.00%

23.00%

24.00%

E

0.00%

-1.85%

-4.26%

-7.06%

-10.15%

-13.52%

-17.18%

-21.17%

-25.56%

-30.49%

-36.23%

M

0.00%

4.81%

10.83%

17.81%

25.75%

34.72%

44.83%

56.02%

68.47%

82.13%

96.57%

EMPLOY

0.00%

2.78%

3.78%

3.50%

2.13%

-0.29%

-3.77%

-8.41%

-14.37%

-21.89%

-31.44%

LAB

0.00%

2.77%

3.77%

3.50%

2.11%

-0.28%

-3.77%

-8.41%

-14.36%

-21.88%

-31.43%

PROPR

0.00%

2.83%

3.64%

3.64%

2.02%

-0.40%

-3.64%

-8.50%

-14.17%

-21.86%

-31.58%

CAP

0.00%

2.77%

3.77%

3.47%

2.12%

-0.29%

-3.77%

-8.42%

-14.37%

-21.91%

-31.45%

WOOD Products

X

0.00%

-3.82%

-8.72%

-14.29%

-20.36%

-26.84%

-33.68%

-40.86%

-48.38%

-56.31%

-64.78%

XD

0.00%

-1.96%

-4.51%

-7.43%

-10.70%

-14.25%

-18.13%

-22.32%

-26.96%

-32.13%

-38.16%

XXD

0.00%

-1.96%

-4.51%

-7.43%

-10.71%

-14.25%

-18.13%

-22.33%

-26.96%

-32.14%

-38.17%

Q

0.00%

-1.38%

-3.17%

-5.19%

-7.43%

-9.82%

-12.35%

-15.02%

-17.86%

-20.86%

-24.07%

PX

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

1.00%

1.00%

PD

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

1.00%

1.00%

1.00%

2.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

PDD

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

1.00%

1.00%

1.00%

2.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

E

0.00%

-4.16%

-9.47%

-15.51%

-22.09%

-29.09%

-36.47%

-44.18%

-52.23%

-60.67%

-69.60%

M

0.00%

-0.61%

-1.39%

-2.22%

-3.08%

-3.91%

-4.66%

-5.30%

-5.75%

-5.86%

-5.33%

EMPLOY

0.00%

-4.62%

-10.48%

-17.07%

-24.14%

-31.56%

-39.25%

-47.13%

-55.17%

-63.38%

-71.81%

LAB

0.00%

-4.63%

-10.48%

-17.07%

-24.14%

-31.57%

-39.25%

-47.12%

-55.17%

-63.38%

-71.81%

PROPR

0.00%

-4.69%

-10.55%

-17.09%

-24.12%

-31.49%

-39.20%

-47.07%

-55.11%

-63.32%

-71.86%

CAP

0.00%

-4.64%

-10.51%

-17.08%

-24.17%

-31.52%

-39.23%

-47.11%

-55.17%

-63.40%

-71.80%

Regional H ousehold Income Affects

Low

0.00%

-0.02%

-0.06%

-0.10%

-0.15%

-0.21%

-0.27%

-0.33%

-0.40%

-0.48%

-0.57%

Medium

0.00%

-0.10%

-0.26%

-0.45%

-0.67%

-0.91%

-1.18%

-1.46%

-1.77%

-2.10%

-2.47%

High

0.00%

-0.11%

-0.29%

-0.50%

-0.75%

-1.02%

-1.32%

-1.64%

-1.99%

-2.37%

-2.79%

Note: Allowed harvest levels are calculated as a percent of baseline level (FS), thus 0.9*FS indicates the allowed cut is 90 percent of the base level.

21



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