An Incentive System for Salmonella Control in the Pork Supply Chain



Table 1. Expected Serological Prevalence for Salmonella Farm Control Packages

___________Serological prevalence__________

Farm Control Package

1

2

3

0

0.03

0.18

0.72

10

0.06

0.24

0.17

20

0.09

0.22

0.06

30

0.12

0.15

0.03

40

0.18

0.10

0.02

50

0.21

0.06

0.00

60

0.15

0.03

0.00

70

0.08

0.01

0.00

80

0.05

0.01

0.00

90

0.02

0.00

0.00

100

0.01

0.00

0.00

Expected prevalence level (%)

45.1

21.6

4.6

Variance of prevalence level

442.99

311.44

78.84

Probability of exceeding 20% prevalence

0.82

0.36

0.05

Table 2.      Bacteriological Prevalence Probability Distributions for Plant Control Package γ1.

Bacteriological prevalence

0_______

10________

20____

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Seroprevalence 0

0.95

0.05

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Seroprevalence 10

0.94

0.05

0.01

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Seroprevalence 20

0.927

0.053

0.015

0.005

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Seroprevalence 30

0.8978

0.0747

0.02

0.0075

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Seroprevalence 40

0.86792

0.09208

0.025

0.01

0.005

0

0

0

0

0

0

Seroprevalence 50

0.818588 0.128912

0.03

0.0125

0.0075

0.0025

0

0

0

0

0

Seroprevalence 60

0.78395

0.135

0.035

0.0225

0.015

0.0075

0.00105

0

0

0

0

Seroprevalence 70

0.73255

0.14

0.06

0.035

0.015

0.0075

0.005

0.00495

0

0

0

Seroprevalence 80

0.666

0.135

0.095

0.05

0.025

0.015

0.01

0.004

0

0

0

Seroprevalence 90

0.63

0.105

0.09

0.065

0.05

0.03

0.015

0.01

0.005

0

0

Seroprevalence 100________

0.5817

0.08

0.08

0.075

0.06

0.05

0.035

0.025

0.0133

0____

___0

26



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