Table 1. Expected Serological Prevalence for Salmonella Farm Control Packages
|
___________Serological prevalence__________ |
Farm Control Package | ||
|
1 |
2 |
3 | |
|
0 |
0.03 |
0.18 |
0.72 |
|
10 |
0.06 |
0.24 |
0.17 |
|
20 |
0.09 |
0.22 |
0.06 |
|
30 |
0.12 |
0.15 |
0.03 |
|
40 |
0.18 |
0.10 |
0.02 |
|
50 |
0.21 |
0.06 |
0.00 |
|
60 |
0.15 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
|
70 |
0.08 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
|
80 |
0.05 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
|
90 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
100 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
Expected prevalence level (%) |
45.1 |
21.6 |
4.6 |
|
Variance of prevalence level |
442.99 |
311.44 |
78.84 |
|
Probability of exceeding 20% prevalence |
0.82 |
0.36 |
0.05 |
Table 2. Bacteriological Prevalence Probability Distributions for Plant Control Package γ1.
|
Bacteriological prevalence |
0_______ |
10________ |
20____ |
30 |
40 |
50 |
60 |
70 |
80 |
90 |
100 |
|
Seroprevalence 0 |
0.95 |
0.05 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Seroprevalence 10 |
0.94 |
0.05 |
0.01 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Seroprevalence 20 |
0.927 |
0.053 |
0.015 |
0.005 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Seroprevalence 30 |
0.8978 |
0.0747 |
0.02 |
0.0075 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Seroprevalence 40 |
0.86792 |
0.09208 |
0.025 |
0.01 |
0.005 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Seroprevalence 50 |
0.818588 0.128912 |
0.03 |
0.0125 |
0.0075 |
0.0025 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |
|
Seroprevalence 60 |
0.78395 |
0.135 |
0.035 |
0.0225 |
0.015 |
0.0075 |
0.00105 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Seroprevalence 70 |
0.73255 |
0.14 |
0.06 |
0.035 |
0.015 |
0.0075 |
0.005 |
0.00495 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Seroprevalence 80 |
0.666 |
0.135 |
0.095 |
0.05 |
0.025 |
0.015 |
0.01 |
0.004 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Seroprevalence 90 |
0.63 |
0.105 |
0.09 |
0.065 |
0.05 |
0.03 |
0.015 |
0.01 |
0.005 |
0 |
0 |
|
Seroprevalence 100________ |
0.5817 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.075 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.035 |
0.025 |
0.0133 |
0____ |
___0 |
26
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