Investment in Next Generation Networks and the Role of Regulation: A Real Option Approach



Figure 3 -Incumbent next generation access deployment plans by target date

Notes: in euro terms the amounts for each operator are: FT €273m, TI €172m, DT €2,8bn, Belgacom
€287, Verizon €16bn, AT&T €4,5bn, Swisscom €409m, HKBN €96m, NTT €36bn, KPN
€962m.

Source: adapted from Ofcom (2007).

The pace with which these potential benefits are realised will clearly depend on how
NGNs are regulated. The regulatory question for NGNs is quite well defined (its solution
less so, as we will see). Differently from the usual regulatory problem in
telecommunications - that is the opening up to competition of a legacy infrastructure, the
copper network, built during the monopoly years - the question here is how to define future
rules for networks which do not exist yet. The relevant trade off is between the incentive to
investment and the degree of competition in the future telecommunication market. On the
one hand, in fact, established operators, which will, inevitably, sustain most of the
investment in several countries, are waiting to see whether regulatory authorities decide to

5 See the European Commission recent Impact Assessment (European Commission, 2007b).



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