The name is absent



17c - Emerging economies

__________Brazil__________

______Malaysia______

_______Mexico_______

South Africa

_______Thailand_______

1998     2005

1998     2005

1998     2005

1998     2005

1998

2005

*⅛Moody's

raS&P
Q≤

Fitch__________________

B2( 3)     Ba3 (5)

BB- (5)    BB- (5)

B+ (4)     BB- (5)

Baa3 (8)   A3 (11)

BBB- (8)   A- (11)

BB (6)     A- (11)

Ba2 (7) Baa1 (10)
BB (6) BBB (9)
BB (6) BBB (9)

Ba1 (7) Baa 1 (10)

BBB- (8) BBB+ (10)

BB+ (7) BBB+ (10)

Baa3 (8) Baa1 (10)
BB+ (7) BBB+ (10)

BB (6) BBB+ (10)

M Macro contribution
,Gov. contribution
о

° External contribution

-0.59

-0.49

-0.39

1.00

1.19

1.37

0.95

1.17

1.39

0.79

1.03

1.27

0.91

1.19

1.47

-0.37

-0.16

0.06

-1.06

-0.79

-0.53

0.26

0.45

0.64

0.34

0.61

0.88

-0.31

-0.14

0.04

-0.15

0.18

0.50

-0.70

-0.35

-0.01

0.13

0.26

0.38

0.28

0.38

0.48

-0.36

-0.12

0.12

≥--------------

Overall change_____

-1.11

-0.47

0.17

-0.76

0.04

0.83

1.34

1.88

2.42

1.41

2.02

2.64

0.24

0.94

1.64

Macro contribution

-0.19

-0.16

-0.13

0.77

0.91

1.05

0.71

0.88

1.05

0.86

0.99

1.13

0.70

0.92

1.13

⅛Gov. contribution

E External contribution

-1.01

-0.84

-0.67

-0.93

-0.73

-0.53

0.25

0.40

0.54

0.75

0.96

1.17

-0.68

-0.54

-0.40

-0.22

0.06

0.34

-0.56

-0.28

0.00

-0.06

0.04

0.15

0.00

0.08

0.17

-0.15

0.06

0.26

Overall change_____

-1.42

-0.94

-0.45

-0.71

-0.10

0.52

0.90

1.32

1.73

1.61

2.04

2.46

-0.13

0.43

0.99

Macro contribution

-0.56

-0.49

-0.41

1.04

1.14

1.25

1.26

1.39

1.52

0.92

1.09

1.25

0.80

0.89

0.97

о Gov. contribution
External contribution

-0.46

-0.28

-0.11

-0.61

-0.40

-0.18

-0.08

0.08

0.24

0.91

1.14

1.37

-0.18

-0.03

0.12

0.72

1.36

2.01

0.12

0.52

0.91

0.13

0.35

0.56

-0.06

0.07

0.20

0.43

0.86

1.28

Overall change_____

-0.30

0.60

1.49

0.55

1.26

1.97

1.31

1.82

2.32

1.76

2.30

2.83

1.06

1.72

2.38

Notes: The block contributions were calculated using the changes in the variables multiplied by the short-run coefficients estimated by
random effects ordered probit, and then aggregated. The only exception was unemployment, for which we used the long-run coefficient. The
upper and lower bounds where calculated using plus and minus one standard deviation.

$ The quantitative rating scale is in brackets.

51



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