17c - Emerging economies
|
__________Brazil__________ |
______Malaysia______ |
_______Mexico_______ |
South Africa |
_______Thailand_______ | |||||||||||
|
1998 2005 |
1998 2005 |
1998 2005 |
1998 2005 |
1998 |
2005 | ||||||||||
|
*⅛Moody's raS&P Fitch__________________ |
B2( 3) Ba3 (5) BB- (5) BB- (5) B+ (4) BB- (5) |
Baa3 (8) A3 (11) BBB- (8) A- (11) BB (6) A- (11) |
Ba2 (7) Baa1 (10) |
Ba1 (7) Baa 1 (10) BBB- (8) BBB+ (10) BB+ (7) BBB+ (10) |
Baa3 (8) Baa1 (10) BB (6) BBB+ (10) | ||||||||||
|
M Macro contribution ° External contribution |
-0.59 |
-0.49 |
-0.39 |
1.00 |
1.19 |
1.37 |
0.95 |
1.17 |
1.39 |
0.79 |
1.03 |
1.27 |
0.91 |
1.19 |
1.47 |
|
-0.37 |
-0.16 |
0.06 |
-1.06 |
-0.79 |
-0.53 |
0.26 |
0.45 |
0.64 |
0.34 |
0.61 |
0.88 |
-0.31 |
-0.14 |
0.04 | |
|
-0.15 |
0.18 |
0.50 |
-0.70 |
-0.35 |
-0.01 |
0.13 |
0.26 |
0.38 |
0.28 |
0.38 |
0.48 |
-0.36 |
-0.12 |
0.12 | |
|
≥-------------- Overall change_____ |
-1.11 |
-0.47 |
0.17 |
-0.76 |
0.04 |
0.83 |
1.34 |
1.88 |
2.42 |
1.41 |
2.02 |
2.64 |
0.24 |
0.94 |
1.64 |
|
Macro contribution |
-0.19 |
-0.16 |
-0.13 |
0.77 |
0.91 |
1.05 |
0.71 |
0.88 |
1.05 |
0.86 |
0.99 |
1.13 |
0.70 |
0.92 |
1.13 |
|
⅛Gov. contribution oð E External contribution |
-1.01 |
-0.84 |
-0.67 |
-0.93 |
-0.73 |
-0.53 |
0.25 |
0.40 |
0.54 |
0.75 |
0.96 |
1.17 |
-0.68 |
-0.54 |
-0.40 |
|
-0.22 |
0.06 |
0.34 |
-0.56 |
-0.28 |
0.00 |
-0.06 |
0.04 |
0.15 |
0.00 |
0.08 |
0.17 |
-0.15 |
0.06 |
0.26 | |
|
Overall change_____ |
-1.42 |
-0.94 |
-0.45 |
-0.71 |
-0.10 |
0.52 |
0.90 |
1.32 |
1.73 |
1.61 |
2.04 |
2.46 |
-0.13 |
0.43 |
0.99 |
|
Macro contribution |
-0.56 |
-0.49 |
-0.41 |
1.04 |
1.14 |
1.25 |
1.26 |
1.39 |
1.52 |
0.92 |
1.09 |
1.25 |
0.80 |
0.89 |
0.97 |
|
о Gov. contribution |
-0.46 |
-0.28 |
-0.11 |
-0.61 |
-0.40 |
-0.18 |
-0.08 |
0.08 |
0.24 |
0.91 |
1.14 |
1.37 |
-0.18 |
-0.03 |
0.12 |
|
0.72 |
1.36 |
2.01 |
0.12 |
0.52 |
0.91 |
0.13 |
0.35 |
0.56 |
-0.06 |
0.07 |
0.20 |
0.43 |
0.86 |
1.28 | |
|
Overall change_____ |
-0.30 |
0.60 |
1.49 |
0.55 |
1.26 |
1.97 |
1.31 |
1.82 |
2.32 |
1.76 |
2.30 |
2.83 |
1.06 |
1.72 |
2.38 |
Notes: The block contributions were calculated using the changes in the variables multiplied by the short-run coefficients estimated by
random effects ordered probit, and then aggregated. The only exception was unemployment, for which we used the long-run coefficient. The
upper and lower bounds where calculated using plus and minus one standard deviation.
$ The quantitative rating scale is in brackets.
51
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