Table 15 - Summary of prediction errors
|
Estimation |
Obs. |
Prediction error (notches) |
% Correctly |
% Within 1 |
% Within 2 | ||||||||||
|
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
-1 |
-2 |
-3 |
-4 |
-5 | |||||
|
OLS |
557 |
0 |
5 |
~7Γ |
88 |
209 |
141 |
ɪ |
2 |
0 |
0 |
37.5% |
78.6% |
96.6% | |
|
RE with εi |
557 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
17 |
78 |
361 |
91 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
64.8% |
95.2% |
99.6% |
|
Moody’s RE without εi |
557 |
0 |
6 |
15 |
49 |
92 |
188 |
141 |
53 |
12 |
1 |
0 |
33.8% |
75.6% |
93.9% |
|
Ordered Probit |
557 |
4 |
4 |
14 |
35 |
99 |
259 |
86 |
46 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
46.5% |
79.7% |
94.3% |
|
RE Ordered Probit |
557 |
0 |
8 |
23 |
59 |
106 |
244 |
71 |
34 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
43.8% |
75.6% |
92.3% |
|
OLS |
568 |
0 |
3 |
15 |
34 |
104 |
218 |
147 |
41 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
38.4% |
82.6% |
95.8% |
|
RE with εi |
565 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
80 |
392 |
83 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
69.4% |
98.2% |
99.6% |
|
S&P RE without εi |
565 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
39 |
98 |
216 |
133 |
52 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
38.2% |
79.1% |
95.2% |
|
Ordered Probit |
565 |
0 |
10 |
14 |
28 |
99 |
262 |
118 |
23 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
46.4% |
84.8% |
93.8% |
|
RE Ordered Probit |
565 |
1 |
12 |
13 |
41 |
115 |
218 |
130 |
29 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
38.6% |
81.9% |
94.3% |
|
OLS |
481 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
32 |
87 |
196 |
113 |
43 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40.7% |
82.3% |
97.9% |
|
RE with εi |
481 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
63 |
339 |
71 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
70.5% |
98.3% |
99.4% |
|
Fitch RE without εi |
481 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
39 |
93 |
174 |
106 |
57 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
36.2% |
77.5% |
97.5% |
|
Ordered Probit |
481 |
1 |
0 |
16 |
32 |
91 |
209 |
95 |
31 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
43.5% |
82.1% |
95.2% |
|
RE Ordered Probit |
553 |
1 |
3 |
25 |
53 |
115 |
191 |
121 |
36 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
34.5% |
77.2% |
93.3% |
Notes: * - prediction error within +/- 1 notch. ** - prediction error within +/- 2 notches.
Table 16 - Upgrades and downgrades prediction
|
Sample |
Predicted Upgrades |
Upgrades correctly |
Sample |
Predicted |
Downgrades correctly | |||
|
t |
t+1 |
t |
t+1 | |||||
|
OLS |
60 |
95 |
23 |
20 |
34 |
55 |
20 |
10 |
|
RE with εi |
60 |
87 |
28 |
17 |
34 |
51 |
16 |
12 |
|
Moody's RE without εi |
60 |
89 |
23 |
16 |
34 |
51 |
17 |
8 |
|
Ordered Probit |
60 |
127 |
31 |
25 |
34 |
72 |
20 |
8 |
|
RE Ordered Probit |
60 |
101 |
23 |
23 |
34 |
65 |
18 |
8 |
|
OLS |
79 |
79 |
32 |
17 |
41 |
50 |
16 |
15 |
|
RE with εi |
79 |
79 |
31 |
14 |
41 |
52 |
18 |
12 |
|
S&P RE without εi |
79 |
90 |
34 |
15 |
41 |
61 |
19 |
14 |
|
Ordered Probit |
79 |
102 |
38 |
14 |
41 |
64 |
20 |
13 |
|
RE Ordered Probit |
79 |
90 |
31 |
15 |
41 |
68 |
20 |
12 |
|
OLS |
68 |
74 |
28 |
19 |
25 |
35 |
13 |
3 |
|
RE with εi |
68 |
67 |
25 |
19 |
25 |
34 |
15 |
7 |
|
Fitch RE without εi |
68 |
89 |
24 |
20 |
25 |
53 |
15 |
5 |
|
Ordered Probit |
69 |
115 |
30 |
24 |
25 |
71 |
15 |
5 |
|
RE Ordered Probit |
89 |
154 |
43 |
29 |
26 |
77 |
13 |
7 |
Note: εi - estimated country specific effect.
49
More intriguing information
1. Declining Discount Rates: Evidence from the UK2. A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING SOCIAL WELFARE EFFECTS OF NEW AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY
3. The Impact of Financial Openness on Economic Integration: Evidence from the Europe and the Cis
4. The name is absent
5. The name is absent
6. EU Preferential Partners in Search of New Policy Strategies for Agriculture: The Case of Citrus Sector in Trinidad and Tobago
7. Unilateral Actions the Case of International Environmental Problems
8. The name is absent
9. ‘I’m so much more myself now, coming back to work’ - working class mothers, paid work and childcare.
10. The name is absent