The name is absent

Table 15 - Summary of prediction errors

Estimation Procedure	Obs.	Prediction error (notches)											% Correctly predicted	% Within 1 notch *	% Within 2 notches **
Estimation Procedure	Obs.	5	4	3	2	1	0	-1	-2	-3	-4	-5	% Correctly predicted	% Within 1 notch *	% Within 2 notches **
OLS	557	0	5	~7Γ		88	209	141	ɪ	2	0	0	37.5%	78.6%	96.6%
RE with εi	557	0	0	1	17	78	361	91	8	1	0	0	64.8%	95.2%	99.6%
Moody’s RE without εi	557	0	6	15	49	92	188	141	53	12	1	0	33.8%	75.6%	93.9%
Ordered Probit	557	4	4	14	35	99	259	86	46	10	0	0	46.5%	79.7%	94.3%
RE Ordered Probit	557	0	8	23	59	106	244	71	34	11	1	0	43.8%	75.6%	92.3%
OLS	568	0	3	15	34	104	218	147	41	6	0	0	38.4%	82.6%	95.8%
RE with εi	565	0	0	1	6	80	392	83	2	1	0	0	69.4%	98.2%	99.6%
S&P RE without εi	565	0	5	12	39	98	216	133	52	10	0	0	38.2%	79.1%	95.2%
Ordered Probit	565	0	10	14	28	99	262	118	23	10	1	0	46.4%	84.8%	93.8%
RE Ordered Probit	565	1	12	13	41	115	218	130	29	6	0	0	38.6%	81.9%	94.3%
OLS	481	1	3	6	32	87	196	113	43	0	0	0	40.7%	82.3%	97.9%
RE with εi	481	0	1	2	4	63	339	71	1	0	0	0	70.5%	98.3%	99.4%
Fitch RE without εi	481	1	3	7	39	93	174	106	57	1	0	0	36.2%	77.5%	97.5%
Ordered Probit	481	1	0	16	32	91	209	95	31	6	0	0	43.5%	82.1%	95.2%
RE Ordered Probit	553	1	3	25	53	115	191	121	36	8	0	0	34.5%	77.2%	93.3%

Notes: * - prediction error within +/- 1 notch. ** - prediction error within +/- 2 notches.

Table 16 - Upgrades and downgrades prediction

	Sample Upgrades	Predicted Upgrades	Upgrades correctly predicted at time		Sample Downgrades	Predicted Downgrades	Downgrades correctly predicted at time
	Sample Upgrades	Predicted Upgrades	t	t+1	Sample Downgrades	Predicted Downgrades	t	t+1
OLS	60	95	23	20	34	55	20	10
RE with εi	60	87	28	17	34	51	16	12
Moody's RE without εi	60	89	23	16	34	51	17	8
Ordered Probit	60	127	31	25	34	72	20	8
RE Ordered Probit	60	101	23	23	34	65	18	8
OLS	79	79	32	17	41	50	16	15
RE with εi	79	79	31	14	41	52	18	12
S&P RE without εi	79	90	34	15	41	61	19	14
Ordered Probit	79	102	38	14	41	64	20	13
RE Ordered Probit	79	90	31	15	41	68	20	12
OLS	68	74	28	19	25	35	13	3
RE with εi	68	67	25	19	25	34	15	7
Fitch RE without εi	68	89	24	20	25	53	15	5
Ordered Probit	69	115	30	24	25	71	15	5
RE Ordered Probit	89	154	43	29	26	77	13	7

Note: εi - estimated country specific effect.

49

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