Reform of the EU Sugar Regime: Impacts on Sugar Production in Ireland



9.6


Figure 2: Relative Asylum Burdens, 1985-99


Portugal                                Spain


1985      '        '        ' 1 999l                      1985      '        '        ' 1999,


Czech Rep.


Greece


Netherlands


Denmark                               Finland


Norway


Poland



The results of the regression analysis are presented in Table 3. We find
that some historic, economic and political pull-factors have a strong
impact on the distribution of asylum applications. There is also evidence
that the relative leniency or restrictiveness of a country’s asylum policy
(expressed in the deterrence index) has a highly significant effect on the
number of applications received. However, it will be shown below that the
impact of the different policy measures that make up that index is highly
varied.

Table 3: Determinants for the Relative Number of Asylum Applications

Expected Sign

Coef_______

z_________

Number of Unemployed (lagged)

-

-.0007394

-7.49***

GDP growth (lagged)

+

.0023206

0.12

Stock of Foreign Nationals (lagged)

+

.0012462

8.20***

Relative ODA Payments

+

1270083

2.88***

Average Distance

-

0.00000382

0.08

Deterrence Index

-

-.2266697

-2.56***

N=227; R-squared = 0.41; ***p<0.01

24



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