Table 2: Expected Relationship between variables
Independent Variables |
Dependent variable: Relative number of |
Economic pull factors: * number of registered unemployed (in t-1) ________* annual real GDP growth (in t-1)_____________ |
- ___________+___________ |
Historical pull factors: *stock of foreign nationals from top five |
+ |
Political pull factors * annual ODA payments as % of GDP (in t-1) |
____________+___________ |
Geographic pull factors: * average geographic distance between capital of a destination country and capitals of |
- |
Policy related pull factors: * deterrence index ( in t-1) |
- |
Model Estimation
To estimate the relationship between these variables and relative burdens
for individual countries, the paper uses pooled time-series cross-section
(TSCS) ordinary least square regressions (Stimson 1985) with panel
corrected standard errors (PCSEs) (Beck and Katz 1995).28 Prais-Winston
transformations are used to eliminate serial correlation of the errors and
to take account of cross-section and panel specific auto-correlation. In
running the regression of the above independent variables on the number
of relative asylum seekers, I lagged GDP growth, unemployment, foreign
population and the deterrence index by one year as one might reasonably
28 'Pooled', 'panel' or 'TSCS' analysis has become a popular tool for the empirical analysis
of issues in Comparative Politics and International Relations. It involves the analysis of
N cross-sections (countries) and T time periods (years). It increases the number of
observations available and allows for the analysis of dynamic factors in cross-national
comparative research. The paper corrects for expected downward bias in standard errors
and upward bias in t-statistics (Hicks 1994) by eliminating serial correlation of the errors
applying Beck and Katz's standard method of 'panel corrected standard errors' (PCSE).
For a recent review on 'pooling' see Beck (2001).
22
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