able to redress the inequitable distribution of burdens, raising concerns in
some quarters about a possible race to the bottom of protection standards.
However, there has so far been no academic attempt to use relevant
theoretical models developed in the field of economic migration (Ranis and
Fei, 1969; Harris and Todaro 1970; Borjas 1990; Massey et al. 1993) to
systematically analyse patterns of asylum flows in order to establish the
importance of policy and other historical, economic or political migration
pull factors that can explain why asylum seekers apply in a particular
country.
Regarding the second question, on the capacity of public policy in this
area, there is still little consensus as to whether liberal states can control
unwanted migration (Freeman 1994). The ‘transnationalist’ strand of the
literature (Sassen 1996; Jacobson 1995; Soysal 1994) emphasises systemic
constraints that undermine the capacity of states to assert effective
control in this area. In contrast, the more ‘state-centrist’ strand of the
literature (Holzer, Schneider and Widmer 2000; Guiraudon and Lahav
2000; Joppke 1997; 1998) argues that states have found new ways to
regulate migration in an era of increasing interdependence, which enables
them to retain much of their regulatory capacity in this area, even to the
extent that their measures have undermined some of the more liberal
aspects of the international migration regime.
Largely missing from the literature have been quantitative studies that
systematically analyse empirical evidence across time and space4 and
which might offer more conclusive answers about the determinants of
asylum seekers’ choice of destination country and the effectiveness of
public policy in regulating asylum flows. In an attempt to fill this gap, this
paper analyses UNHCR and OECD data from 20 OECD countries for the
period 1985-1999 and shows many public policy measures aimed, at least
in part, at deterring unwanted migration and at addressing the highly
4 One notable exception is the study by Holzer and Schneider (2002).