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The Aboriginal population enjoys a much higher birth rate than their Canadian
counterparts. Therefore, based on an overall increase of 33.1 per cent of their population over the
2001-2017 period, their share of the total population is expected to climb from 3.4 per cent in
2001 to 4.0 per cent in 2017. The Aboriginal working age population is expected to grow by 41.7
per cent between 2001 and 2017 - almost double the rate of the overall working age population.
The report projects the Aboriginal labour force in 2017 and the contribution of the
Aboriginal population group to the overall labour force growth over the period. It does so
assuming different scenarios for an increase in Aboriginal participation rates. It finds that
Aboriginal Canadians have the potential to contribute up to 7.39 per cent of the total labour force
growth between 2001 and 2017 if the 2001 Aboriginal/non-Aboriginal participation rate gap
were eliminated. Moreover, the elimination of the participation rate gap would translate into a
0.3 percentage point increase in the 2017 national participation rate. Moreover, in the case where
the employment rate of the Aboriginal population reaches by 2017 that of the non-Aboriginal
population in 2001, the report finds that the Aboriginal population has the potential to contribute
up to 7.64 per cent of the total employment growth in Canada between 2001 and 2017. The
national employment rate in 2017 would be roughly 0.6 percentage point higher in the case
where Aboriginal Canadians closed the 2001 employment rate gap with non-Aboriginal
Canadians by 2017 than in the case where their employment rate remained at its 2001 level.
Output and Productivity Projections
This key section of the report develops estimates of the potential contribution of the
Aboriginal population to output and productivity in the Canadian economy over the 2001-2017
period based on a number of assumptions and hypotheses. The report uses micro-data from the
2001 census (unfortunately, data from the 2006 census are not yet available) as well as the
projections obtained in the previous section. It is important to stress that it would be very
difficult to realize this potential, particularly by 2017.
The key assumptions relate to the evolution of the educational attainment gap between
Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Canadians, the evolution of the employment rate gap between
Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Canadians at a given level of educational attainment, and the
evolution of the employment income gap between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Canadians at a
given level of educational attainment. For the first variable, three assumptions are considered:
(i) The educational level for Aboriginal Canadians in 2017 remains at the 2001 level.
This means that by 2017 all the 2001 educational gap between non-Aboriginal
and Aboriginal Canadians remains.
(ii) The educational level for Aboriginal Canadians in 2017 reaches the mid-point
between the 2001 level of non-Aboriginal Canadians and the current level for
Aboriginal Canadians. This means that by 2017 one half of the 2001 educational
gap between non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal Canadians remains.
(iii) The educational level for Aboriginal Canadians in 2017 reaches the 2001 level of
non-Aboriginal Canadians. This means that by 2017 the 2001 educational gap
between non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal Canadians is eliminated.